Trends in the Incidence, Mortality and Lifetime Risks of Female Breast and Cervical Cancer - Guangdong Province, China, 2023.

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to report the epidemiological trends and provide updated estimates and lifetime risks for breast and cervical cancers among women in Guangdong province.

METHODS

A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project incidence and mortality rates for 2023. The adjusted for multiple primaries (AMP) method was used to calculate the lifetime risks of developing and dying from breast and cervical cancer. Joinpoint analysis was employed to describe the temporal trends.

RESULTS

The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of female breast cancer increased from 2012 to 2019 in Guangdong province, with a particularly pronounced increase noted in the rural areas. The ASIR for cervical cancer among women aged over 55 increased in both urban and rural areas, whereas a declining trend was observed among women under the age of 55. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for both breast cancer and cervical cancer demonstrated upward trends among women aged over 55, while no significant trend in ASMR was found for women under 55 years. In 2023, the estimated incidence rates of breast cancer and cervical cancer would be 50.81/10 (ASIR would be 35.57/10) and 15.31/10 (ASIR would be 10.41/10) respectively, with corresponding mortality rates of 10.78/10 (ASMR would be 7.15/10) and 6.11/10 (ASMR would be 3.93/10) for these cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Breast cancer continues to pose a significant threat to women's health in both rural and urban areas of Guangdong, whereas cancer prevention and control programs for cervical cancer have shown positive impacts among the younger population. Greater emphasis should be placed on women aged over 55 to halt the rising mortality rates of both cancers within this population.