Liao Yu, Zhu Qian, Sun Kexin, Zheng Rongshou, Deng Huihong, Lin Lifeng, Meng Ruilin, Wei Wenqiang, Wang Ye
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China.
Office for Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
China CDC Wkly. 2025 Jul 11;7(28):940-946. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2025.157.
This study aims to report the epidemiological trends and provide updated estimates and lifetime risks for breast and cervical cancers among women in Guangdong province.
A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project incidence and mortality rates for 2023. The adjusted for multiple primaries (AMP) method was used to calculate the lifetime risks of developing and dying from breast and cervical cancer. Joinpoint analysis was employed to describe the temporal trends.
The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of female breast cancer increased from 2012 to 2019 in Guangdong province, with a particularly pronounced increase noted in the rural areas. The ASIR for cervical cancer among women aged over 55 increased in both urban and rural areas, whereas a declining trend was observed among women under the age of 55. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for both breast cancer and cervical cancer demonstrated upward trends among women aged over 55, while no significant trend in ASMR was found for women under 55 years. In 2023, the estimated incidence rates of breast cancer and cervical cancer would be 50.81/10 (ASIR would be 35.57/10) and 15.31/10 (ASIR would be 10.41/10) respectively, with corresponding mortality rates of 10.78/10 (ASMR would be 7.15/10) and 6.11/10 (ASMR would be 3.93/10) for these cancers.
Breast cancer continues to pose a significant threat to women's health in both rural and urban areas of Guangdong, whereas cancer prevention and control programs for cervical cancer have shown positive impacts among the younger population. Greater emphasis should be placed on women aged over 55 to halt the rising mortality rates of both cancers within this population.
本研究旨在报告广东省女性乳腺癌和宫颈癌的流行病学趋势，并提供最新的发病率估计值和终生风险。
应用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2023年的发病率和死亡率。采用多原发调整（AMP）方法计算患乳腺癌和宫颈癌以及死于这两种癌症的终生风险。运用Joinpoint分析描述时间趋势。
2012年至2019年期间，广东省女性乳腺癌的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）有所上升，农村地区的上升尤为明显。55岁以上女性宫颈癌的ASIR在城乡地区均有所上升，而55岁以下女性则呈下降趋势。55岁以上女性乳腺癌和宫颈癌的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）均呈上升趋势，而55岁以下女性的ASMR未发现明显趋势。2023年，乳腺癌和宫颈癌的估计发病率分别为50.81/10（ASIR为35.57/10）和15.31/10（ASIR为10.41/10），这两种癌症的相应死亡率分别为10.78/10（ASMR为7.15/10）和6.11/10（ASMR为3.93/10）。
乳腺癌继续对广东省城乡女性的健康构成重大威胁，而宫颈癌防控项目在年轻人群中已显示出积极影响。应更加重视55岁以上的女性，以遏制该人群中这两种癌症死亡率的上升。
