Zhu Qian, Yao Yifei, Chen Ru, Han Bingfeng, Wang Shaoming, Li Li, Sun Kexin, Zheng Rongshou, Wei Wenqiang
National Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100021, China.
Sci China Life Sci. 2025 May;68(5):1478-1486. doi: 10.1007/s11427-024-2810-y. Epub 2025 Feb 26.
The numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in China were the largest in the world, causing a huge social and economic burden. We attempt to use more intuitive indicators to measure the probabilities of being diagnosed of or dying from cancer in China and compare these probabilities with those in Japan and the United States (US). We obtained the cancer data from GLOBOCAN 2022 for China, Japan, and the US and the all-cause mortality and population data from the United Nations. The lifetime risks of developing and dying from cancer were estimated with adjusted actual life expectancy, multiple primaries, and death-competing risks from causes other than cancers. Approximately 27.61% of Chinese people developed cancer and 1 in 5 persons were likely to die from cancer. The highest-risk cancer among men and women was lung cancer in China, but in the US and Japan, prostate cancer among men and breast cancer among women posed the highest risk. Lung cancer presented the highest likelihood of death, but women in Japan had the highest likelihood of dying from colorectal cancer. China had a lower lifetime risk of developing cancer compared with Japan and the US, but a higher probability of dying from cancer than the US. Although the probability of developing cancer was not as high as that in Japan and the US, China was still faced with enormous pressure due to its huge population and contradictory cancer patterns. Estimating lifetime risks can provide essential information to formulate appropriate cancer prevention and control plans.
中国的新发癌症病例数和死亡数位居世界之首，造成了巨大的社会和经济负担。我们试图使用更直观的指标来衡量中国患癌或死于癌症的概率，并将这些概率与日本和美国进行比较。我们从GLOBOCAN 2022获取了中国、日本和美国的癌症数据，以及来自联合国的全因死亡率和人口数据。利用调整后的实际预期寿命、多原发癌以及除癌症以外其他原因的死亡竞争风险，估算了患癌和死于癌症的终生风险。约27.61%的中国人会患癌，五分之一的人可能死于癌症。在中国，男性和女性中风险最高的癌症均为肺癌，但在美国和日本，男性中风险最高的癌症是前列腺癌，女性中是乳腺癌。肺癌的死亡可能性最高，但日本女性死于结直肠癌的可能性最高。与日本和美国相比，中国患癌的终生风险较低，但死于癌症的概率高于美国。尽管中国患癌的概率不如日本和美国高，但由于人口众多以及癌症模式相互矛盾，中国仍面临巨大压力。估算终生风险可为制定适当的癌症预防和控制计划提供重要信息。
