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隔离和疫苗接种对牛结节性皮肤病传播的影响:一种分数阶方法。

Effects of quarantine and vaccination on the transmission of Lumpy skin disease: A fractional approach.

作者信息

Almuallem Nada A, Chauhan Ram Pratap

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Jeddah, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Department of Mathematics, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Amaravati, Andhra Pradesh, India.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 Jul 17;20(7):e0327673. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0327673. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a viral infection that affects cattle, resulting from the lumpy skin disease virus. This study investigates the impact of vaccination and quarantine strategies on LSD outbreaks. This study analyzes a nonlinear model for LSD using the Caputo fractional operator. The positivity and boundedness of the model's solutions are confirmed. Equilibrium points for both disease-free and endemic states are derived, and the basic reproduction number is determined using the next-generation matrix method. An equilibrium point stability analysis is performed. The bifurcation graphs for steady states are presented. Sensitivity indices are calculated to identify the parameters that most significantly influence the dynamics of the disease. The dynamical behavior is analyzed using a Lagrange polynomial interpolation-based numerical scheme. The results demonstrate that increasing the vaccination rate can lead to the elimination of the disease. Increasing movement restrictions for the exposed cattle population reduces infection rates, but does not eliminate the disease. In addition, the spread of LSD is more sensitive to the recruitment of susceptible individuals.

摘要

结节性皮肤病(LSD)是一种由结节性皮肤病病毒引起的影响牛群的病毒感染。本研究调查了疫苗接种和检疫策略对LSD疫情爆发的影响。本研究使用Caputo分数阶算子分析了一个LSD的非线性模型。证实了模型解的正性和有界性。推导了无病状态和地方病状态的平衡点,并使用下一代矩阵法确定了基本再生数。进行了平衡点稳定性分析。给出了稳态的分岔图。计算了敏感性指数以识别对疾病动态影响最显著的参数。使用基于拉格朗日多项式插值的数值格式分析了动力学行为。结果表明,提高疫苗接种率可导致疾病消除。对暴露牛群增加移动限制可降低感染率,但不能消除疾病。此外,LSD的传播对易感个体的补充更为敏感。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e012/12270129/5535b267271f/pone.0327673.g001.jpg

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