Wang Xiao-Min, Bu Xiao-Yan, Du Ling-Na, Hong Zhi-Chang, Wang Jia-Rui
School of Geography and Planning, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Jul 8;46(7):4119-4135. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202406092.
A study on carbon storage and emission in dryland resource cities under land use change was carried out to provide a scientific basis for low-carbon development in dryland resource cities. Taking Shizuishan City， a resource city in the dry zone， as an example， we integrated multi-source data such as station observation， sample testing， remote sensing monitoring， and statistical data. Furthermore， we coupled the InVEST and PLUS-Markov models to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of land use patterns， carbon emission， carbon storage， and carbon flow in Shizuishan City under the four scenarios of natural development， arable land protection， ecological protection， and economic development in the past 15 years and the future and to identify the driving factors of carbon flow using geoprobes. The results showed that： ① From 2005 to 2020， the change in land use in Shizuishan City caused an increase in carbon emissions， a decrease in carbon stock， and a negative net carbon flow， and changes in carbon emissions， carbon stock， and carbon flow were similar to the spatial characteristics of land use. ② From 2005 to 2035， the net carbon flow under the four scenarios in Shizuishan City was negative， and the ecological protection scenario was more obvious in suppressing the decline of net carbon flow. ③ Slope， DEM， distance to the road， mean annual temperature， and mean annual precipitation were the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of carbon flow， and the interactions between mean annual temperature and slope as well as slope and DEM were significant. The results of the study provide a reference for the green and low-carbon transformation and sustainable development of resource cities in the "several bends" of the Yellow River and provide scientific support for the construction of low-carbon cities in resource areas in dry zones.
开展了一项关于土地利用变化下干旱区资源型城市碳储存与排放的研究，为干旱区资源型城市的低碳发展提供科学依据。以干旱区资源型城市石嘴山市为例，整合了站点观测、样本检测、遥感监测和统计数据等多源数据。此外，耦合InVEST和PLUS-Markov模型，分析了石嘴山市在过去15年及未来自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护和经济发展四种情景下土地利用格局、碳排放、碳储存和碳流动的时空演变，并利用地理探测器识别碳流动的驱动因素。结果表明：①2005—2020年，石嘴山市土地利用变化导致碳排放增加、碳储量减少、碳净流量为负，碳排放、碳储量和碳流动的变化与土地利用的空间特征相似。②2005—2035年，石嘴山市四种情景下的碳净流量均为负，生态保护情景在抑制碳净流量下降方面更为明显。③坡度、数字高程模型、距道路距离、年均气温和年均降水量是影响碳流动空间分异的主要因素，年均气温与坡度、坡度与数字高程模型之间的交互作用显著。研究结果为黄河“几字弯”地区资源型城市的绿色低碳转型和可持续发展提供参考，为干旱区资源型地区低碳城市建设提供科学支撑。
