Bending the curve: Modeling the impact of reducing risk factors for noncommunicable diseases to control future health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Addressing the World Health Organization's noncommunicable disease (NCD) "best buys" is key to reducing the disease burden in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Yet, the potential impact of addressing NCD risk factors on current health expenditures (CHE) in LAC countries is unknown. This study uses both Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data and administrative information to model the impact of addressing four risk factors on CHE trends for 24 LAC countries. A comparative risk assessment model estimates changes in CHE associated with reducing five NCDs. Reducing the prevalence of the four risk factors by 10% could save $ 185 billion in cumulative expenditure by 2050 (1.32% of cumulative expenditure from 2020 to 2050) for all LAC countries assessed, with substantial heterogeneity across risk factors. Reducing the prevalence of high blood pressure had the largest impact. On average, a reduction of 10% in high blood pressure, tobacco use, high blood glucose, and alcohol use would reduce cumulative CHE by US$59bn (0.4% of the cumulative CHE by 2050), US$68bn (0.5%), US$46bn (0.3%), and US$12bn (0.1%), respectively for all LAC countries. While addressing NCD risk factors is a key step to improving health in LAC countries, the impact on CHE is relatively small though meaningful in absolute terms, and additional strategies need to be implemented to control increasing CHE levels that threaten health systems' sustainability.