Meng Zhenghao, Sun Han, Daigo Ichiro, Guan Yuru, Shan Yuli
School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China.
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology (RCAST), The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan.
iScience. 2025 Jun 18;28(7):112939. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2025.112939. eCollection 2025 Jul 18.
Technological risks in the lithium supply chain have garnered significant global attention. Yet limited research explores their impact on trade stability or how technological progress mitigates diffusion. This study analyzes the interplay of technological and trade risks-where risks such as technological disruptions and technical barriers to trade destabilize trade flows and amplify supply chain vulnerabilities-within the lithium supply chain, incorporating technology dependency and supply chain management theories. Findings reveal that the U.S. holds 56-79% of core technologies across stages, while China accounts for 6-25%. This monopoly fosters potential risks such as technological barriers and embargoes, leading to large-scale trade risk diffusion characterized by branching and interactive infection patterns. Global losses could reach $90.0 billion, while China may reduce downstream losses by $5.2 billion through tech advantages. This research reveals transmission mechanisms and simulates risk diffusion, offering new insights into supply chain sustainability.
锂供应链中的技术风险已引起全球广泛关注。然而，相关研究有限，尚未探讨其对贸易稳定性的影响，或技术进步如何缓解风险扩散。本研究结合技术依赖和供应链管理理论，分析了锂供应链中技术风险与贸易风险的相互作用，如技术中断和贸易技术壁垒等风险如何破坏贸易流动并加剧供应链脆弱性。研究结果显示，美国在各阶段持有56%-79%的核心技术，而中国占6%-25%。这种垄断引发了技术壁垒和禁运等潜在风险，导致大规模贸易风险扩散，呈现出分支和交互感染模式。全球损失可能达到900亿美元，而中国可凭借技术优势将下游损失减少52亿美元。本研究揭示了风险传播机制并模拟了风险扩散，为供应链可持续性提供了新见解。
