Rudan Igor
Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, UK.
Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences and Green Templeton College, Oxford University, UK.
J Glob Health. 2025 Jul 21;15:01005. doi: 10.7189/jogh.15.01005.
This editorial examines the factors contributing to the success of science, tracing its evolution from fundamental human curiosity to contemporary advancements propelled by technology, data, and artificial intelligence (AI). Beginning with the hypothesis-testing process, it highlights how imaginative individuals throughout history have offered explanations for the natural world, designed experiments, and amassed evidence to confirm or reject their ideas and theories, thus generating new knowledge and understanding of nature. Early humans formulated simple myths and legends as the first scientific hypotheses, partly to lessen their fear of the unknown. A more scientific turn appeared when rare explorer-scientists ventured beyond their ancestral homes, gathered empirical information using their limited senses, made choices based on observations, and sometimes relocated entire communities. Their efforts reflected the timeless elements of the scientific method: from generating a hypothesis to its experimental proof, broad validation and application of new knowledge. The paper then examines the characteristics of successful scientific disciplines. They attract many researchers who generate novel ideas and hypotheses, building an accelerating momentum of discovery. Further hallmarks of such fields are swift and fair peer validation and robust mechanisms for applying new knowledge to improve human well-being. By contrast, less successful fields will struggle with attracting talent, leading to slower progress, which could also be coupled with resistance to new ideas and obstacles to real-world translation of new knowledge. A central theme of the paper is the contribution of measurement and tools to science's success. Modern instruments, from microscopes and telescopes to satellites and statistical tools, have extended our perception of nature, revealing realms far smaller and far larger than human senses can access. The paper also addresses the revolution of 'hypothesis-free science', driven by computers and big data. Rather than framing a single hypothesis, modern researchers gather enormous datasets and use algorithms to test large numbers of possible hypotheses simultaneously and systematically, free of human bias introduced through existing knowledge. Finally, the paper explores how AI could advance science to unprecedented successes: not just by improving human senses like a microscope does, providing additional ones like the Large Hadron Collider does, or extending human memory and computational capacity like computers do, but also by expanding human reasoning itself. Unlike previous tools, AI can synthesise human knowledge and generate hypotheses, design studies, explore patterns and write papers, thus becoming both a 'philosopher 2.0' and a 'scientist 2.0'. Therefore, AI may transform science from a human-centred endeavour into collaborative effort that relies on hybrid intelligence. This unprecedented new frontier will require attention to questions of its explainability, bias, authorship, ethics, and accountability. In the future, science will remain successful by staying aligned with its fundamental mission: to improve the human condition through the expansion of knowledge and understanding of our world.
这篇社论探讨了促成科学成功的因素,追溯了其从人类基本好奇心到由技术、数据和人工智能(AI)推动的当代进步的演变过程。从假设检验过程开始,它强调了历史上富有想象力的个体是如何为自然界提供解释、设计实验并积累证据以证实或反驳他们的观点和理论,从而产生对自然的新知识和理解。早期人类编造简单的神话和传说作为最初的科学假设,部分是为了减轻对未知的恐惧。当罕见的探险科学家冒险走出他们的祖籍家园,利用有限的感官收集经验信息,根据观察做出选择,有时还迁移整个社区时,出现了更具科学性的转变。他们的努力体现了科学方法的永恒要素:从提出假设到进行实验证明,再到广泛验证和应用新知识。然后,本文考察了成功的科学学科的特征。它们吸引了许多研究人员,这些人员提出新颖的想法和假设,形成加速发现的势头。这些领域的进一步标志是迅速而公正的同行验证以及将新知识应用于改善人类福祉的强大机制。相比之下,不太成功的领域在吸引人才方面会面临困难,导致进展缓慢,这也可能伴随着对新思想的抵制以及新知识在现实世界转化中的障碍。本文的一个核心主题是测量和工具对科学成功的贡献。现代仪器,从显微镜、望远镜到卫星和统计工具,扩展了我们对自然的感知,揭示了远比人类感官所能触及的更小和更大的领域。本文还讨论了由计算机和大数据驱动的“无假设科学”革命。现代研究人员不是构建单个假设,而是收集大量数据集并使用算法同时系统地测试大量可能的假设,避免了现有知识引入的人为偏差。最后,本文探讨了人工智能如何能将科学推向前所未有的成功:不仅像显微镜那样改善人类感官,像大型强子对撞机那样提供额外的感官,或像计算机那样扩展人类记忆和计算能力,而且还能扩展人类推理本身。与以前的工具不同,人工智能可以综合人类知识、生成假设、设计研究、探索模式并撰写论文,从而成为“2.0 版哲学家”和“2.0 版科学家”。因此,人工智能可能会将科学从以人类为中心的努力转变为依赖混合智能的协作努力。这个前所未有的新领域将需要关注其可解释性、偏差、作者身份、伦理和问责等问题。未来,科学将通过与其基本使命保持一致而继续取得成功:通过扩展对我们世界的知识和理解来改善人类状况。