Rudan Igor
Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences and Green Templeton College, Oxford University, Oxford, UK.
J Glob Health. 2025 Jun 20;15:01003. doi: 10.7189/jogh.15.01003.
This editorial explores the concept of the 'value of information' in the 21st century through five distinct domains: science, medicine, policy, media, and markets. It uses examples to show that not all information is of equal value. Valuable information shifts probabilities assigned to our hypotheses in the most meaningful ways. It significantly alters our knowledge and understanding of our context, helps us prioritise more rational ideas, and facilitates better decision-making. This paper also addresses the necessity of a conscious observer for the value of information to exist. It develops a framework for how the brain perceives, processes, and assigns value to new information. An example with childhood memories is used to explain the incremental and disruptive shifts in understanding that information of different value can cause. Further examples illustrate how well-designed research can amplify the value of information, how long-neglected information can be rediscovered and used to radically reshape policy, and how expert crowdsourcing can prioritise ideas and democratise decision-making. They also show how key pieces of the most valuable information can redirect policies, have large real-world impact, and save lives. The role of disinformation is also addressed, particularly its power to distort our shared understanding of the related context, mislead rational activities and prompt susceptible people to prioritise irrational ideas. Mainstream media and social media can enable rapid spread of disinformation, exploiting the greater intensity of the brain's response to an unexpected surprise over the expected truth. Stock market prices, meanwhile, reflect in real time how each new information changes the perceived value of a company. Valuable information seems to have some inherent traits: relevance, i.e. it influences an observer's perception of the related beliefs or hypotheses; credibility, i.e. it needs to be trusted by an observer; and leverage, i.e. it influences an observer's ideas and decisions decisively. Where all three criteria align, information assumes a 'high value coefficient' and serves in revising prioritised ideas. Designing activities to increase this coefficient is therefore of common interest to scientists, health professionals, policymakers, journalists, and investors. As artificial intelligence accelerates the volume and speed of data production, human and machine systems alike will focus not merely on data collection, but on discerning which missing information, if generated, could enable the greatest positive impact on the real world. Ultimately, future success in science, medicine, policy, media, and markets may not necessarily be linked to gathering the largest amount information, but rather being good at identifying, generating, and acting upon the information that is most valuable.
本社论通过科学、医学、政策、媒体和市场这五个不同领域探讨了21世纪“信息价值”的概念。文中举例说明并非所有信息都具有同等价值。有价值的信息会以最有意义的方式改变我们赋予假设的概率。它会显著改变我们对自身所处环境的认知和理解,帮助我们优先考虑更合理的想法,并促进更好的决策制定。本文还论述了要有一个有意识的观察者信息价值才得以存在的必要性。它构建了一个关于大脑如何感知、处理新信息并赋予其价值的框架。文中用一个童年记忆的例子来解释不同价值的信息可能导致的理解上的渐进式和颠覆性转变。进一步的例子说明了精心设计的研究如何能提升信息的价值,长期被忽视的信息如何能被重新发现并用于彻底重塑政策,以及专家众包如何能对想法进行优先级排序并使决策民主化。这些例子还展示了最有价值的信息中的关键部分如何能改变政策方向、产生重大的现实影响并拯救生命。文中也讨论了虚假信息的作用,尤其是它扭曲我们对相关背景的共同理解、误导理性活动以及促使易受影响的人优先考虑非理性想法的力量。主流媒体和社交媒体可能会使虚假信息迅速传播,利用大脑对意外惊喜的反应比对预期事实的反应更强烈这一点。与此同时,股票市场价格实时反映每条新信息如何改变对一家公司的感知价值。有价值的信息似乎具有一些内在特质:相关性,即它会影响观察者对相关信念或假设的认知;可信度,即它需要被观察者所信任;以及影响力,即它能决定性地影响观察者的想法和决策。当这三个标准都满足时,信息就具有“高价值系数”,并有助于修正优先考虑的想法。因此,设计活动来提高这个系数是科学家、健康专业人员、政策制定者、记者和投资者的共同兴趣所在。随着人工智能加快数据产生的数量和速度,人类和机器系统都将不仅关注数据收集,还会关注辨别哪些缺失信息如果被生成,可能会对现实世界产生最大的积极影响。最终,未来在科学、医学、政策、媒体和市场方面的成功不一定与收集最多的信息相关,而更在于善于识别、生成并依据最有价值的信息采取行动。