Mousavi Seyed Ehsan, Ilaghi Mehran, Hamidi Rad Romina, Nejadghaderi Seyed Aria
Neurosciences Research Center, Aging Research Institute, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran.
Department of Community Medicine, Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 22;15(1):26639. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-12545-y.
Asia bears a disproportionate and rapidly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the incidence and mortality trends vary significantly between Asian countries, mainly due to the diversity of socioeconomic factors and the implementation of screening programs. This study aimed to report the contemporary distribution, socioeconomic correlates, and projections for future trends of CRC across Asia. The Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) for the year 2020 was used to obtain data on prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates of CRC. We calculated mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs), age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR and ASMR), crude rates, numbers, and 5-year prevalent cases and rates by age, sex, and subregions of Asia. We assessed the correlation between indicators and human development index (HDI) and the ratio of current health expenditure (CHE) to gross domestic product (GDP) using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Estimated incidence or mortality rates between 2025 and 2040 were calculated by multiplying age-specific rates for 2020 by the estimated population between 2025 and 2040. In Asia, the 5-year prevalence rate, ASIR, and ASMR of CRC were 55.60, 17.30, and 8.40 per 100,000, respectively. The highest crude incidence and mortality rates were in the 70 + age group. Males had higher ASIRs than females (20.80 vs. 14.00 per 100,000) in Asia. MIRs for men and women were 0.49 globally and 0.50 and 0.51 in Asia, respectively. A positive significant correlation was observed between HDI and both the ASIR and ASMR. A strong negative correlation was observed between HDI and MIR. The number of incident and mortality cases are estimated to increase by 71.10% and 85.10% in 2040, respectively. CRC is a significant public health concern in Asia, with substantially high incidence and mortality rates in East Asia and lower quality of care and survival in less developed regions of the continent. Resource allocation prioritizing population-based screenings alongside capacity building around specialized care centers is crucial across the Asian countries.
亚洲承受着不成比例且迅速上升的结直肠癌（CRC）负担。然而，亚洲各国之间的发病率和死亡率趋势差异显著，主要是由于社会经济因素的多样性以及筛查项目的实施情况不同。本研究旨在报告亚洲结直肠癌的当代分布、社会经济相关因素以及未来趋势预测。利用2020年全球癌症观测站（GLOBOCAN）获取结直肠癌的患病率、发病率和死亡率数据。我们按亚洲的年龄、性别和次区域计算了死亡率与发病率之比（MIR）、年龄标准化发病率和死亡率（ASIR和ASMR）、粗率、病例数以及5年患病率和发病率。我们使用皮尔逊相关系数评估了各项指标与人类发展指数（HDI）以及当前卫生支出（CHE）与国内生产总值（GDP）之比之间的相关性。通过将2020年的年龄别发病率或死亡率乘以2025年至2040年的估计人口数，计算出2025年至2040年的估计发病率或死亡率。在亚洲，结直肠癌的5年患病率、ASIR和ASMR分别为每10万人55.60、17.30和8.40。最高的粗发病率和死亡率出现在70岁及以上年龄组。在亚洲，男性的ASIR高于女性（每10万人20.80对14.00）。全球男性和女性的MIR分别为0.49，在亚洲男性和女性的MIR分别为0.50和0.51。观察到HDI与ASIR和ASMR均呈显著正相关。观察到HDI与MIR呈强负相关。预计到2040年，发病和死亡病例数将分别增加71.10%和85.10%。结直肠癌是亚洲一个重大的公共卫生问题，东亚的发病率和死亡率相当高，而该大陆较不发达地区的医疗护理质量和生存率较低。在亚洲各国，将基于人群的筛查作为资源分配的优先事项，同时围绕专业护理中心进行能力建设至关重要。
