Xia Hu, Dong Xiaoxin
Department of Public Health, Ningbo No.2 Hospital, Ningbo, China.
Ningbo College of Health Sciences, No. 51 Xuefu Road, Ningbo, 315100, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 23;15(1):26761. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-10824-2.
The current status and trends in the burden of dengue among adults aged 20-49 years are still unclear. In light of this, based on data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, the study explored the global burden of dengue in this age groups, as well as the regional and national burdens, from 1990 to 2021, in aid of more effective strategies for providence and control. We retrieved data from the GBD 2021 with age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) due to dengue. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) quantified trends in these rates. The analysis examined temporal changes in disease burden, the relationship between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and disease burden, and the contributions of population growth, increasing age, and epidemiological changes. Projections for 2022 to 2030 were also included. In 2021, the global ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR for dengue among adults were recorded at 763.39, 45.54, 0.22, and 19.67 per 100,000 population (person-year), respectively. Notably, these metrics exhibited EAPCs exceeding 2% from 1990 to 2021. The middle SDI region showed the highest ASIR and ASPR for dengue, while the low-middle SDI region showed the highest ASMR and ASDR. Among the 21 GBD regions, Tropical Latin America showed the highest ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR, while Southeast Asia showed the highest ASMR. Overall, a weak negative linear relationship occurred between the SDI and various indicators of dengue burden. Notably, increases in ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR were most pronounced in high-income North America, while the largest decreases were examined in the eastern Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, ASIR and ASPR were higher in women, whereas ASMR and ASDR were higher in men. Projection analyses showed that by 2030, the ASIR and ASMR for dengue in adults were expected to increase to 872.94 per 100,000 population and 0.24 per 100,000 population, respectively. The global, regional, and national dengue burden in adults aged 20-49 years varied significantly, with steady growth of over 2% annually between 1990 and 2021.
20至49岁成年人登革热负担的现状和趋势仍不明确。鉴于此，基于《2021年全球疾病负担》（GBD 2021）的数据，本研究探讨了该年龄组登革热的全球负担以及1990年至2021年期间的区域和国家负担，以制定更有效的预防和控制策略。我们从GBD 2021中检索了登革热的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、患病率（ASPR）、死亡率（ASMR）和伤残调整生命年率（ASDR）数据。用估计年度百分比变化（EAPCs）来量化这些比率的趋势。该分析研究了疾病负担的时间变化、社会人口指数（SDI）与疾病负担之间的关系，以及人口增长、年龄增长和流行病学变化的影响。还包括了2022年至2030年的预测。2021年，成年人登革热的全球ASIR（每10万人口（人年））、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR分别记录为763.39、45.54、0.22和19.67。值得注意的是，从1990年到2021年，这些指标的EAPCs超过了2%。中等SDI地区登革热的ASIR和ASPR最高，而中低SDI地区的ASMR和ASDR最高。在21个GBD地区中，热带拉丁美洲的ASIR、ASPR和ASDR最高，而东南亚的ASMR最高。总体而言，SDI与登革热负担的各种指标之间呈弱负线性关系。值得注意的是，ASIR、ASPR和ASDR的增长在高收入的北美最为明显，而降幅最大的是撒哈拉以南非洲东部。此外，女性的ASIR和ASPR较高，而男性的ASMR和ASDR较高。预测分析表明，到2030年，成年人登革热的ASIR和ASMR预计将分别增至每10万人口872.94和每10万人口0.24。20至49岁成年人的全球、区域和国家登革热负担差异显著，1990年至2021年期间每年稳定增长超过2%。
