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1992年至2021年日本自闭症谱系障碍的负担及其到2050年的预测：全球疾病负担研究结果

Burden of autism spectrum disorder in Japan from 1992 to 2021 and its prediction until 2050: results from the GBD study.

作者信息

Liu Jiabo, Xie Xiaoyan, Li Yunxi, Pu Yiqi, Li Yan, Yang Lingling

机构信息

Second Clinical Medical College, Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.

Department of Psychology and Sleep Medicine, Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.

出版信息

Front Psychiatry. 2025 Jul 8;16:1619085. doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2025.1619085. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.3389/fpsyt.2025.1619085
PMID:40698055
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12279874/
Abstract

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental condition characterized by persistent deficits in social communication and interaction, alongside restricted, repetitive patterns of behavior. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends and project the future burden of ASD in Japan. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASR) (1992-2021) through age-period-cohort modeling, joinpoint regression, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting. Age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) increased significantly (Average Annual Percentage Change [AAPC]=0.2744; 95%CI:0.2606-0.2882), with males disproportionately affected (male-to-female ratio 4:1). By 2050, crude prevalence is projected to decline 14.2%, while ASPR will rise 18.0%. Japan's ASD burden exceeds global averages, necessitating targeted interventions across the lifespan. These findings highlight the increasing burden of ASD in Japan and underscore the urgent need for enhanced healthcare planning and resource allocation.

摘要

自闭症谱系障碍（ASD）是一种神经发育疾病，其特征是社交沟通和互动持续存在缺陷，同时伴有局限、重复的行为模式。本研究旨在分析日本ASD的时间趋势并预测其未来负担。利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021数据，我们通过年龄-时期-队列模型、连接点回归和自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）预测分析了患病率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）和年龄标准化率（ASR）（1992 - 2021年）。年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）显著上升（年均百分比变化[AAPC]=0.2744；95%置信区间：0.2606 - 0.2882），男性受影响程度不成比例（男女比例为4:1）。到2050年，预计粗患病率将下降14.2%，而ASPR将上升18.0%。日本的ASD负担超过全球平均水平，需要在整个生命周期进行有针对性的干预。这些发现凸显了日本ASD负担的增加，并强调了加强医疗保健规划和资源分配的迫切需求。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12d/12279874/f3beba56f6c2/fpsyt-16-1619085-g009.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12d/12279874/f3beba56f6c2/fpsyt-16-1619085-g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12d/12279874/0706231531d4/fpsyt-16-1619085-g001.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12d/12279874/7137c7209484/fpsyt-16-1619085-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12d/12279874/0119e4b26fdd/fpsyt-16-1619085-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12d/12279874/ce14a074571a/fpsyt-16-1619085-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a12d/12279874/372936df2e73/fpsyt-16-1619085-g008.jpg
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The global epidemiology and health burden of the autism spectrum: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.自闭症谱系障碍的全球流行病学与健康负担：2021年全球疾病负担研究的结果
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