Fanelli Angela, Cescatti Alessandro, Ciscar Juan-Carlos, Dubois Gregoire, Ibarreta Dolores, Lowe Rachel, Riccetti Nicola, Robuchon Marine, Capua Ilaria, Szewczyk Wojtek, Massaro Emanuele
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Scientific Development Programmes Unit, Ispra, Italy.
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Economics of Climate Change, Energy, and Transport Unit, Seville, Spain.
Sci Adv. 2025 Jul 25;11(30):eadw6363. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adw6363. Epub 2025 Jul 23.
How do human activities contribute to the emergence of zoonotic diseases that can lead to epidemics and pandemics? Our analysis of common drivers of the World Health Organization's priority diseases suggests that climate conditions, including higher temperatures, higher annual precipitation levels, and water deficits, elevate the risk of disease outbreaks. In addition, land-use changes, human encroachment on forested areas, increased population and livestock density, and biodiversity loss contribute to this risk, with biodiversity loss showing a complex and nonlinear relationship. This study also presents a global risk map and an epidemic risk index that combines countries' specific risk with their capacities for preparing and responding to zoonotic threats.
人类活动如何导致可能引发流行病和大流行的人畜共患疾病的出现？我们对世界卫生组织重点疾病的常见驱动因素的分析表明，气候条件，包括气温升高、年降水量增加和缺水，会增加疾病爆发的风险。此外，土地利用变化、人类对森林地区的侵占、人口和牲畜密度增加以及生物多样性丧失也会导致这种风险，生物多样性丧失呈现出复杂的非线性关系。这项研究还展示了一张全球风险地图和一个流行病风险指数，该指数将各国的特定风险与其防范和应对人畜共患威胁的能力结合起来。
