Flockhart D T Tyler, Nicol Sam, Chadès Iadine, Mitchell Greg W, Martin Tara G, Fuller Richard A, Norris D Ryan
Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada.
CSIRO Environment, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia.
Curr Biol. 2025 Aug 18;35(16):4011-4018.e4. doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2025.06.068. Epub 2025 Jul 23.
The eastern North American monarch butterfly, known for its spectacular annual migration between Mexico, USA, and Canada, is currently the focus of intense conservation attention to minimize extinction risk and reach a conservation target of approximately 132 million individuals (equivalent to occupying 6 ha of overwintering habitat in Mexico). Given that migratory eastern North American monarchs breed over successive breeding generations across a vast area, reaching this conservation objective must account for the inherent uncertainties of undertaking conservation actions across space and time. We integrated a density-dependent full-annual-cycle matrix population model with stochastic dynamic programming to identify the optimal sequence of conservation actions (restoring habitat in three different breeding regions or protecting habitat on the wintering grounds), spanning three countries, to reach each of three objectives: maximize population viability, meet the population target, and maximize population size. Using an annual budget of $30 million over 5 years, we find that a coordinated approach that would primarily focus on habitat restoration in the central USA would best help achieve each of the three recovery objectives. Importantly, monarchs had a higher chance of reaching each conservation objective following a strategy that was coordinated across all three nations and commenced immediately rather than be delayed. Our results provide quantitative evidence for the necessity of coordinated international efforts to conserve migratory species and a tool for decision-makers in Canada, USA, and Mexico to recover this iconic and highly threatened butterfly.
北美洲东部的黑脉金斑蝶以其在墨西哥、美国和加拿大之间壮观的年度迁徙而闻名,目前它是密集保护关注的焦点,以尽量减少灭绝风险并实现约1.32亿只个体的保护目标(相当于占据墨西哥6公顷的越冬栖息地)。鉴于迁徙的北美洲东部黑脉金斑蝶在广阔区域内经过连续几代繁殖,要实现这一保护目标必须考虑到在空间和时间上开展保护行动所固有的不确定性。我们将一个密度依赖的全年周期矩阵种群模型与随机动态规划相结合,以确定保护行动的最佳顺序(在三个不同的繁殖区域恢复栖息地或保护越冬地的栖息地),跨越三个国家,以实现三个目标中的每一个:最大化种群生存能力、达到种群目标以及最大化种群规模。使用5年每年3000万美元的预算,我们发现主要集中在美国中部进行栖息地恢复的协调方法最有助于实现这三个恢复目标。重要的是,按照在所有三个国家协调并立即开始而非推迟的策略,黑脉金斑蝶实现每个保护目标的机会更高。我们的结果为协调国际努力保护迁徙物种的必要性提供了定量证据,并为加拿大、美国和墨西哥的决策者恢复这种标志性且高度濒危的蝴蝶提供了一个工具。