Chong Ka Chun, Wei Yuchen, Jia Katherine Min, Boyer Christopher, Lin Guozhang, Wang Huwen, Li Conglu, Hung Chi Tim, Jiang Xiaoting, Yam Carrie Ho Kwan, Chow Tsz Yu, Wang Yawen, Zhao Shi, Li Kehang, Yang Aimin, Mok Chris Ka Pun, Hui David Sc, Yeoh Eng Kiong, Guo Zihao
School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 28;16(1):6924. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-61737-7.
Recent investigations have demonstrated a relationship between the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 and post-COVID-19 conditions. Building upon a potential connection between SARS-CoV-2 persistence and early virologic rebound, we examine the association of early virologic rebound with post-acute mortality and hospitalization due to post-acute sequelae among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Hong Kong. Our study includes 13,859, 3959, and 4502 patients in the all-patient, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and molnupiravir group, respectively. Results show that patients who experienced virologic rebound exhibited a significantly higher risk of post-acute mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36-1.70) with a risk difference [RD] of 7.19%, compared with patients without virologic rebound. A similar increase in the risk of post-acute mortality is also observed in nirmatrelvir/ritonavir-treated patients (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.41-2.25; RD, 12.55%) and molnupiravir-treated patients (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.18-1.82; RD, 4.90%). The virologic rebound may thus serve as an early marker for post-COVID-19 condition, enabling healthcare officials to monitor and provide timely intervention for long COVID.
近期调查显示了严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的持续存在与新冠后遗症之间的关系。基于SARS-CoV-2持续存在与早期病毒学反弹之间的潜在联系,我们研究了香港新冠住院患者中早期病毒学反弹与急性后遗症导致的急性后期死亡率和住院率之间的关联。我们的研究分别纳入了全患者组、奈玛特韦/利托那韦组和莫努匹拉韦组的13859例、3959例和4502例患者。结果显示,与未出现病毒学反弹的患者相比,出现病毒学反弹的患者急性后期死亡风险显著更高(风险比[HR]为1.52;95%置信区间[CI]为1.36 - 1.70),风险差异[RD]为7.19%。在接受奈玛特韦/利托那韦治疗的患者(HR为1.78;95% CI为1.41 - 2.25;RD为12.55%)和接受莫努匹拉韦治疗的患者(HR为1.47;95% CI为1.18 - 1.82;RD为4.90%)中也观察到急性后期死亡风险有类似增加。因此,病毒学反弹可能作为新冠后遗症的早期标志物,使卫生保健官员能够监测并为长期新冠患者提供及时干预。
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