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新型冠状病毒肺炎患者中严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型的反弹及急性后期死亡率和住院率:队列研究

SARS-CoV-2 rebound and post-acute mortality and hospitalization among patients admitted with COVID-19: cohort study.

作者信息

Chong Ka Chun, Wei Yuchen, Jia Katherine Min, Boyer Christopher, Lin Guozhang, Wang Huwen, Li Conglu, Hung Chi Tim, Jiang Xiaoting, Yam Carrie Ho Kwan, Chow Tsz Yu, Wang Yawen, Zhao Shi, Li Kehang, Yang Aimin, Mok Chris Ka Pun, Hui David Sc, Yeoh Eng Kiong, Guo Zihao

机构信息

School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.

Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 28;16(1):6924. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-61737-7.


DOI:10.1038/s41467-025-61737-7
PMID:40721474
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12304394/
Abstract

Recent investigations have demonstrated a relationship between the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 and post-COVID-19 conditions. Building upon a potential connection between SARS-CoV-2 persistence and early virologic rebound, we examine the association of early virologic rebound with post-acute mortality and hospitalization due to post-acute sequelae among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Hong Kong. Our study includes 13,859, 3959, and 4502 patients in the all-patient, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and molnupiravir group, respectively. Results show that patients who experienced virologic rebound exhibited a significantly higher risk of post-acute mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36-1.70) with a risk difference [RD] of 7.19%, compared with patients without virologic rebound. A similar increase in the risk of post-acute mortality is also observed in nirmatrelvir/ritonavir-treated patients (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.41-2.25; RD, 12.55%) and molnupiravir-treated patients (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.18-1.82; RD, 4.90%). The virologic rebound may thus serve as an early marker for post-COVID-19 condition, enabling healthcare officials to monitor and provide timely intervention for long COVID.

摘要

近期调查显示了严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的持续存在与新冠后遗症之间的关系。基于SARS-CoV-2持续存在与早期病毒学反弹之间的潜在联系,我们研究了香港新冠住院患者中早期病毒学反弹与急性后遗症导致的急性后期死亡率和住院率之间的关联。我们的研究分别纳入了全患者组、奈玛特韦/利托那韦组和莫努匹拉韦组的13859例、3959例和4502例患者。结果显示,与未出现病毒学反弹的患者相比,出现病毒学反弹的患者急性后期死亡风险显著更高(风险比[HR]为1.52;95%置信区间[CI]为1.36 - 1.70),风险差异[RD]为7.19%。在接受奈玛特韦/利托那韦治疗的患者(HR为1.78;95% CI为1.41 - 2.25;RD为12.55%)和接受莫努匹拉韦治疗的患者(HR为1.47;95% CI为1.18 - 1.82;RD为4.90%)中也观察到急性后期死亡风险有类似增加。因此,病毒学反弹可能作为新冠后遗症的早期标志物,使卫生保健官员能够监测并为长期新冠患者提供及时干预。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b0c9/12304394/01d5ecd26a15/41467_2025_61737_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b0c9/12304394/92d3408d8c5a/41467_2025_61737_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b0c9/12304394/bce985fc0786/41467_2025_61737_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b0c9/12304394/01d5ecd26a15/41467_2025_61737_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b0c9/12304394/92d3408d8c5a/41467_2025_61737_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b0c9/12304394/bce985fc0786/41467_2025_61737_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b0c9/12304394/01d5ecd26a15/41467_2025_61737_Fig3_HTML.jpg

相似文献

[1]
SARS-CoV-2 rebound and post-acute mortality and hospitalization among patients admitted with COVID-19: cohort study.

Nat Commun. 2025-7-28

[2]
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[3]
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[6]
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[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
Comparing the effectiveness of molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in non-hospitalized and hospitalized COVID-19 patients with type 2 diabetes: A target trial emulation study.

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir on post-COVID-19 outcomes among outpatients: a target trial emulation investigation.

Emerg Microbes Infect. 2025-12

[2]
Association of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir with post-acute sequelae and mortality among patients who are immunocompromised with COVID-19 in Hong Kong: a retrospective cohort study.

Lancet Rheumatol. 2025-2

[3]
COVID-19 vaccination modified the effect of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir on post-acute mortality and rehospitalization: a retrospective cohort study.

Emerg Microbes Infect. 2024-12

[4]
Association of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir with post-acute sequelae and mortality in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2024-10

[5]
The persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in tissues and its association with long COVID symptoms: a cross-sectional cohort study in China.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2024-8

[6]
COVID-19 Rebound After VV116 vs Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir Treatment: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

JAMA Netw Open. 2024-3-4

[7]
Prevalence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 in a large community surveillance study.

Nature. 2024-2

[8]
Evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 RNA Rebound After Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Treatment in Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trials - United States and International Sites, 2021-2022.

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2023-12-22

[9]
SARS-CoV-2 Rebound With and Without Use of COVID-19 Oral Antivirals.

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2023-12-22

[10]
Symptoms, Viral Loads, and Rebound Among COVID-19 Outpatients Treated With Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Compared With Propensity Score-Matched Untreated Individuals.

Clin Infect Dis. 2024-5-15

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