Monkkonen Paavo, Manville Michael, Lens Michael
University of California, Los Angeles, United States.
J Hous Econ. 2024 Mar;63. doi: 10.1016/j.jhe.2024.101982. Epub 2024 Feb 9.
We introduce a new way to measure the stringency of housing regulation. Rather than a standard regulatory index or a single aspect of regulation like Floor Area Ratio, we draw on cities' self-reported estimates of their total zoned capacity for new housing. This measure, available to us as a result of state legislation in California, offers a more accurate way to assess local antipathy toward new housing, and also offers a window into how zoning interacts with existing buildout. We show, in regressions analyzing new housing permitting, that our measure has associations with new supply that are as large or larger than conventional, survey-based indexes of land use regulation. Moreover, unbuilt zoning capacity interacts with rent to predict housing production in ways conventional measures do not. Specifically, interacting our measure with rent captures the interplay of regulation and demand: modest deregulation in high-demand cities is associated with substantially more housing production than substantial deregulation in low-demand cities. These findings offer a more comprehensive explanation for the historically low levels of housing production in high cost metros.
我们引入了一种衡量住房监管严格程度的新方法。我们并非采用标准监管指数或像容积率这样单一的监管方面，而是借鉴城市自行报告的新住房分区总容量估计值。由于加利福尼亚州的州立法，我们能够获取这一衡量指标，它提供了一种更准确的方式来评估当地对新住房的反感程度，还为分区规划与现有建设情况的相互作用提供了一个窗口。在分析新住房许可情况的回归分析中，我们表明，我们的衡量指标与新住房供应的关联程度与传统的、基于调查的土地使用监管指数相当或更大。此外，未开发的分区容量与租金相互作用，以传统衡量指标无法做到的方式预测住房建设情况。具体而言，将我们的衡量指标与租金相互作用，可以捕捉到监管与需求的相互影响：高需求城市适度放松监管与低需求城市大幅放松监管相比，前者带来的住房建设量要多得多。这些发现为高成本大都市地区住房建设量长期处于低位提供了更全面的解释。
