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考虑回弹效应时的自动驾驶汽车与可持续性

Automated vehicles and sustainability when considering rebound effects.

作者信息

Letmathe Peter, Paegert Maren

机构信息

School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 Aug 1;20(8):e0329193. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0329193. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

While automated vehicles are expected to lower energy consumption, improve traffic flow and enhance road safety, their deployment may increase traffic volume, leading to a rebound effect. Addressing this issue, we develop a framework to assess the environmental, social and time costs of private and of shared automated vehicle usage in urban and rural areas in Germany. When comparing the status quo and automated vehicle usage, we show that 34-47% of additional traffic volume could emerge without deteriorating current conditions, depending on the area and usage concept. Shared automated vehicles in rural areas constitute the most distinct case, as they are the most beneficial for the environment and society but are the least attractive with respect to the time costs of passengers. Policymakers and system providers should strive to mitigate this dichotomy.

摘要

虽然自动驾驶车辆有望降低能源消耗、改善交通流量并提高道路安全性,但其部署可能会增加交通量,从而导致反弹效应。为解决这一问题,我们开发了一个框架,用于评估德国城乡地区私人和共享自动驾驶车辆使用的环境、社会和时间成本。在比较现状和自动驾驶车辆使用情况时,我们发现,根据地区和使用概念,在不恶化当前状况的情况下,可能会出现34%至47%的额外交通量。农村地区的共享自动驾驶车辆是最独特的案例,因为它们对环境和社会最有益,但在乘客时间成本方面最缺乏吸引力。政策制定者和系统供应商应努力缓解这种二分法。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/21c6/12316294/ba7f94718a39/pone.0329193.g001.jpg

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