Chen Chuanwu, Wang Jiang, Holyoak Marcel, Lin Liu, Wang Yanping
Laboratory of Island Biogeography and Conservation Biology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China.
Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, CA, USA.
Nat Commun. 2025 Aug 2;16(1):7114. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-62441-2.
Turtles and tortoises (chelonians) are among the most threatened vertebrates worldwide, yet the factors determining their high extinction risk and their resilience to further challenges are not fully understood. Here, we compile a dataset comprising intrinsic and extrinsic variables for chelonians to reveal their current risk patterns and extinction vulnerability to future climatic and anthropogenic threats. The results show that at-risk species are predominantly characterized by large body size, small ranges, high functional distinctness, and intense human threat levels, with high representation in the Indomalayan region. Notably, 18.6% of currently unevaluated species are projected to be threatened with extinction. Furthermore, the projected rates of climatic and environmental changes across species' distributions are significantly higher than the rates of evolution for traits linked to resilience to climate change and altered environments. Overall, this study provides insights for prioritizing conservation actions and underscores the urgent need to prevent future extinctions of chelonians.
龟类（海龟和陆龟）是全球受威胁最严重的脊椎动物之一，但决定它们高灭绝风险以及它们应对进一步挑战的恢复力的因素尚未完全明了。在此，我们编制了一个包含龟类内在和外在变量的数据集，以揭示它们当前的风险模式以及对未来气候和人为威胁的灭绝脆弱性。结果表明，濒危物种的主要特征是体型大、分布范围小、功能独特性高以及人类威胁程度高，在东洋区有很高的代表性。值得注意的是，预计目前未评估的物种中有18.6%面临灭绝威胁。此外，跨物种分布的气候和环境变化预测速率显著高于与应对气候变化和环境改变的恢复力相关性状的进化速率。总体而言，本研究为确定保护行动的优先次序提供了见解，并强调迫切需要防止龟类未来灭绝。
