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育龄期女性丙型肝炎病毒负担的时空演变:一项多国年龄-时期-队列分析

Spatiotemporal evolution of HCV burden among women of reproductive age: a multinational age-period-cohort analysis.

作者信息

Ying Zhang, Jing Yan, Tong Weifang, Chaoyan Yue

机构信息

Department of Laboratory Medicine, Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China.

Department of Laboratory Medicine, Jinshan Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China.

出版信息

Virol J. 2025 Aug 2;22(1):265. doi: 10.1186/s12985-025-02869-6.


DOI:10.1186/s12985-025-02869-6
PMID:40753224
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12317561/
Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To study the epidemiology and trends of HCV infection among women aged 15-49, this research aims to inform public health strategies and reduce its global impact by addressing maternal and child transmission risks. DESIGN: This research analyzed GBD data (1990-2021) on HCV in women aged 15-49, examining ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR trends by region and age. APC and Bayesian models predicted future trajectories to guide public health policies. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among women aged 15 - 49 witnessed a downward trend. The incidence rate (5.46 per 100,000) and mortality rate (0.068 per 100,000) of acute HCV were notably lower than those of chronic HCV, which stood at an incidence rate of 29.92 per 100,000 and a mortality rate of 1.42 per 100,000. In 2021, regions with a low Sociodemographic Index (SDI) endured the heaviest burden. Oceania, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and several other regions experienced an upward trend in acute HCV cases; meanwhile, the number of chronic HCV cases increased in most regions, with the exception of Australasia. Pakistan had the highest HCV burden globally. Projections indicate that over the next decade, both the incidence and mortality rates of HCV will continue to decline, yet the total number of cases is expected to rise. CONCLUSION: This study reveals the complex epidemiological landscape of acute and chronic hepatitis C in women of reproductive age globally. Despite the anticipated decline in standardized incidence and mortality rates of acute and chronic hepatitis C among women of reproductive age worldwide in the coming decade, the actual number of cases continues to increase annually. This underscores the substantial challenges faced by the World Health Organization's goal of eliminating HCV infection by 2030.

摘要

目的:为研究15至49岁女性丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)感染的流行病学及趋势,本研究旨在通过应对母婴传播风险,为公共卫生策略提供信息并降低其全球影响。 设计:本研究分析了1990 - 2021年15至49岁女性HCV的全球疾病负担数据(GBD数据),按地区和年龄审查了急性HCV发病率(ASIR)、急性HCV患病率(ASPR)、急性HCV死亡率(ASMR)和急性HCV伤残调整生命年率(ASDR)趋势。年龄-时期-队列(APC)模型和贝叶斯模型预测了未来趋势,以指导公共卫生政策。 结果:1990年至2021年,15至49岁女性的全球丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)负担呈下降趋势。急性HCV的发病率(每10万人中5.46例)和死亡率(每10万人中0.068例)明显低于慢性HCV,慢性HCV的发病率为每10万人中29.92例,死亡率为每10万人中1.42例。2021年,社会人口学指数(SDI)较低的地区负担最重。大洋洲、中亚、东欧和其他几个地区的急性HCV病例呈上升趋势;与此同时,除澳大拉西亚外,大多数地区的慢性HCV病例数有所增加。巴基斯坦的HCV负担在全球最高。预测表明,在未来十年中,HCV的发病率和死亡率都将继续下降,但病例总数预计会上升。 结论:本研究揭示了全球育龄妇女急性和慢性丙型肝炎复杂的流行病学情况。尽管预计未来十年全球育龄妇女急性和慢性丙型肝炎的标准化发病率和死亡率会下降,但实际病例数每年仍在增加。这凸显了世界卫生组织到2030年消除HCV感染目标所面临的巨大挑战。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/3cb612451e1d/12985_2025_2869_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/f9c8465d3e34/12985_2025_2869_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/9f87fce9f79e/12985_2025_2869_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/178008a0860d/12985_2025_2869_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/e4b920d7e409/12985_2025_2869_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/355318799e93/12985_2025_2869_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/3cb612451e1d/12985_2025_2869_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/f9c8465d3e34/12985_2025_2869_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/9f87fce9f79e/12985_2025_2869_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/178008a0860d/12985_2025_2869_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/e4b920d7e409/12985_2025_2869_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/355318799e93/12985_2025_2869_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9885/12317561/3cb612451e1d/12985_2025_2869_Fig6_HTML.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Analysis of Repeat Hepatitis C Viremia After Sustained Virologic Response in a Large Cohort of U.S. Veterans.

Clin Infect Dis. 2025-1-9

[2]
Resistance-Associated Substitution Testing Trends and Impact on HCV Treatment Outcomes in Canada: A CanHepC-CANUHC Analysis.

J Viral Hepat. 2025-2

[3]
The burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors by state in the USA, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Lancet. 2024-12-7

[4]
Acute Hepatitis C: Current Status and Future Perspectives.

Viruses. 2024-11-6

[5]
Hepatitis C Virus Testing Among Perinatally Exposed Children: 2018 to 2020.

Pediatrics. 2024-12-1

[6]
Epidemiology of liver diseases: global disease burden and forecasted research trends.

Sci China Life Sci. 2025-2

[7]
Viral Hepatitis in Pregnant Mexican Women: Its Impact in Mother-Child Binomial Health and the Strategies for Its Eradication.

Pathogens. 2024-8-2

[8]
Global, regional, and national burden of female cancers in women of child-bearing age, 1990-2021: analysis of data from the global burden of disease study 2021.

EClinicalMedicine. 2024-7-2

[9]
Transition and trend analysis of the burden of depression in China and different income countries: Based on GBD database and joinpoint regression model.

J Affect Disord. 2024-10-1

[10]
Global mortality of chronic liver diseases attributable to Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus infections from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2030.

J Infect Public Health. 2024-7

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