Wang Liyuan, Hassan Latiffah Binti, Toung Ooi Peck, Li Xia
Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Malaysia.
Department of Public Health, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211, USA.
J Vet Sci. 2025 Jul;26(4):e44. doi: 10.4142/jvs.24307.
African swine fever (ASF) is a significant transboundary disease with profound global economic impacts. ASF, caused by the virus, is highly resilient and has caused substantial economic losses in affected regions, with no available vaccination or treatment. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the spatial clusters and potential factors contributing to the ASF epidemic in China from August 2018 to April 2021.
The study aimed to trace ASF transmission, map the spatial distribution and spread dynamics, and model the spread to evaluate the potential control strategies.
Standardized deviational ellipse analysis was used to identify the directionality and distribution of ASF outbreaks. Ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression were applied to account for spatial heterogeneity and explore the localized relationships within the data set.
The ASF transmission in China was delineated across three phases, characterized by an initial rapid spread, a subsequent westward expansion, and a final plateau phase with a southwestward trend. The key factors influencing ASF transmission included the pig population density, wind speeds, altitude, and the presence of high-risk roads, with seasonality also playing a significant role in the disease incidence.
This research highlights the significant impact of small-scale farming practices and the live pig transportation network on ASF spread. In addition, it identifies key epidemiological factors, including the pig density and seasonal variations, which are crucial for developing effective disease control strategies.
非洲猪瘟（ASF）是一种具有重大全球经济影响的重要跨界疾病。由该病毒引起的非洲猪瘟具有高度的抗逆性，在受影响地区造成了巨大的经济损失，且尚无可用的疫苗或治疗方法。我们对2018年8月至2021年4月期间中国非洲猪瘟疫情的空间聚集情况和潜在影响因素进行了全面分析。
本研究旨在追踪非洲猪瘟的传播路径，绘制其空间分布和传播动态图，并建立传播模型以评估潜在的防控策略。
采用标准化偏离椭圆分析来确定非洲猪瘟疫情爆发的方向性和分布情况。应用普通最小二乘法回归和地理加权回归来考虑空间异质性，并探索数据集中的局部关系。
中国的非洲猪瘟传播可分为三个阶段，其特征为初期快速传播、随后向西扩展以及最终呈西南方向趋势的平稳阶段。影响非洲猪瘟传播的关键因素包括猪的种群密度、风速、海拔高度以及高风险道路的存在，季节性因素在疾病发病率方面也起着重要作用。
本研究突出了小规模养殖方式和生猪运输网络对非洲猪瘟传播的重大影响。此外，研究还确定了关键的流行病学因素，包括猪的密度和季节变化，这些因素对于制定有效的疾病防控策略至关重要。
