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模拟中国发生重大非洲猪瘟疫情的全球经济后果。

Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China.

作者信息

Mason-D'Croz Daniel, Bogard Jessica R, Herrero Mario, Robinson Sherman, Sulser Timothy B, Wiebe Keith, Willenbockel Dirk, Godfray H Charles J

机构信息

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), St Lucia, Queensland, Australia.

Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC, USA.

出版信息

Nat Food. 2020 Apr;1(4):221-228. doi: 10.1038/s43016-020-0057-2. Epub 2020 Apr 17.


DOI:10.1038/s43016-020-0057-2
PMID:33634268
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7116817/
Abstract

African swine fever is a deadly porcine disease that has spread into East Asia where it is having a detrimental effect on pork production. However, the implications of African swine fever on the global pork market are poorly explored. Two linked global economic models are used to explore the consequences of different scales of the epidemic on pork prices and on the prices of other food types and animal feeds. The models project global pork prices increasing by 17-85% and unmet demand driving price increases of other meats. This price rise reduces the quantity of pork demanded but also spurs production in other parts of the world, and imports make up half the Chinese losses. Demand for, and prices of, food types such as beef and poultry rise, while prices for maize and soybean used in feed decline. There is a slight decline in average per capita calorie availability in China, indicating the importance of assuring the dietary needs of low-income populations. Outside China, projections for calorie availability are mixed, reflecting the direct and indirect effects of the African swine fever epidemic on food and feed markets.

摘要

非洲猪瘟是一种致命的猪病,已蔓延至东亚,对猪肉生产造成了不利影响。然而,非洲猪瘟对全球猪肉市场的影响尚未得到充分研究。我们使用了两个相互关联的全球经济模型,来探究不同规模的疫情对猪肉价格、其他食品类型价格以及动物饲料价格的影响。这些模型预测,全球猪肉价格将上涨17%至85%,未满足的需求将推动其他肉类价格上涨。价格上涨减少了猪肉需求数量,但也刺激了世界其他地区的生产,进口弥补了中国一半的损失。牛肉和家禽等食品类型的需求和价格上涨,而饲料中使用的玉米和大豆价格下跌。中国的人均卡路里供应量略有下降,这表明确保低收入人群的饮食需求非常重要。在中国以外地区,卡路里供应量的预测情况不一,反映了非洲猪瘟疫情对食品和饲料市场的直接和间接影响。

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[5]
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[6]
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[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
Fear and trust: How risk perceptions of avian influenza affect Chinese consumers' demand for chicken.

China Econ Rev. 2016-9

[2]
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Vet Rec. 2019-6-8

[3]
First Oral Vaccination of Eurasian Wild Boar Against African Swine Fever Virus Genotype II.

Front Vet Sci. 2019-4-26

[4]
African Swine Fever Status in Europe.

Viruses. 2019-3-30

[5]
Development of vaccines against African swine fever virus.

Virus Res. 2019-3-25

[6]
African swine fever could cause EU rift.

Nature. 2019-2

[7]
A Review of African Swine Fever and the Potential for Introduction into the United States and the Possibility of Subsequent Establishment in Feral Swine and Native Ticks.

Front Vet Sci. 2018-2-6

[8]
Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop.

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2016-12-5

[9]
Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change cobenefits of dietary change.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016-4-12

[10]
Income Disparities and the Global Distribution of Intensively Farmed Chicken and Pigs.

PLoS One. 2015-7-31

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