de'Donato Francesca, De Sario Manuela, Michelozzi Paola
Dipartimento di Epidemiologia del Servizio Sanitario Regionale del Lazio, ASL Roma 1, Roma;
Dipartimento di Epidemiologia del Servizio Sanitario Regionale del Lazio, ASL Roma 1, Roma.
Epidemiol Prev. 2025 Mar-Jun;49(2-3):56-61. doi: 10.19191/EP25.2-3.S1.056.
to quantify the impact of heat on mortality, in terms of heat attributable deaths in 6 Italian cities included in the CCM Climactions project (Turin, Genoa, Bologna, Rome, Bari, Palermo) and to estimate the potential health co-benefits by considering temperature reduction scenarios in urban areas proposed in the project case studies in terms of urban nature-based solutions measures and albedo variation of impervious surfaces.
city-specific time series models and impact assessment.
daily mortality counts and average temperature data in six Italian cities (Turin, Genoa, Bologna, Rome, Bari, Palermo) included in the CCM CLIMACTIONS project Main outcome measures: overall mortality. Non-linear distributed lag models were used to estimate risk and attributable deaths for increments between the 75th and the 99th percentiles of the mean temperature distribution (lag 0-3) over the period 2006-2015. To estimate the benefits of the intervention scenarios proposed in Climactions to reduce temperatures in urban areas, the deaths attributable to heat with and without this reduction were calculated and the difference between the two estimates corresponds to the potential change in the impact due to scenario measures introduced.
the study reports a reduction in heat attributable deaths between 25% and 35% and between 40% and 60% in all cities, respectively, for the two scenarios of average temperature mitigation equal to 1.3°C and 2°C.
although only referring to simulation scenarios, the study provides further evidence of how urban nature-based solutions and the variation in the albedo of surfaces can be beneficial at an urban level both for the environment and populations health, supporting the implementation of climate change adaptation measures.
根据CCM气候行动项目中包含的6个意大利城市（都灵、热那亚、博洛尼亚、罗马、巴里、巴勒莫）的热归因死亡人数，量化高温对死亡率的影响，并通过考虑项目案例研究中提出的城市地区降温情景，从基于自然的城市解决方案措施和不透水表面反照率变化方面，估计潜在的健康协同效益。
特定城市的时间序列模型和影响评估。
CCM气候行动项目中6个意大利城市（都灵、热那亚、博洛尼亚、罗马、巴里、巴勒莫）的每日死亡人数和平均温度数据 主要结局指标：总死亡率。使用非线性分布滞后模型估计2006 - 2015年期间平均温度分布第75百分位数和第99百分位数之间增量（滞后0 - 3）的风险和归因死亡人数。为了估计气候行动中提出的干预情景对降低城市地区温度的益处，计算了有和没有这种降温情况下的热归因死亡人数，这两个估计值之间的差异对应于由于引入情景措施而导致的影响潜在变化。
该研究报告称，对于平均温度降低1.3°C和2°C的两种情景，所有城市的热归因死亡人数分别减少了25%至35%和40%至60%。
尽管仅参考模拟情景，但该研究进一步证明了基于自然的城市解决方案和表面反照率变化在城市层面如何对环境和人群健康有益，支持了气候变化适应措施的实施。
