Fay R L, Glidden C K, Ciota A T, Mordecai E A
bioRxiv. 2025 Aug 2:2025.08.01.667982. doi: 10.1101/2025.08.01.667982.
Climate change is accelerating the spread of vector-borne diseases like West Nile virus (WNV), which is highly temperature-sensitive. WNV is the most widespread mosquito-borne disease in the continental United States, with over 2,400 reported cases in 2024. In New York State (NYS), where WNV first emerged in the US, temperatures have risen over 1.4°C since the early 1900s. While temperature's role in WNV transmission is established, its effect on season length is less clear. This study asks: (1) Has the WNV season lengthened in NYS over the past 25 years? (2) Is a longer season linked to higher WNV incidence in mosquitoes and humans? and (3) Are these changes associated with shifts in the timing of infection onset and termination in hosts? We integrated daily county-level temperature, mosquito surveillance, and human case data from 1999-2024. Our results show that based on temperature suitability, the WNV season has extended by an average of 24.8 days-starting 4 days earlier and ending 20 days later. Longer seasons are positively associated with greater WNV prevalence in both mosquitoes and people. These findings underscore how climate change is reshaping the phenology and burden of vector-borne disease. Many vector-borne diseases may face amplified risks as transmission seasons lengthen, highlighting the need for adaptive public health responses.
气候变化正在加速西尼罗河病毒（WNV）等媒介传播疾病的传播，该病毒对温度高度敏感。西尼罗河病毒是美国大陆传播最广泛的蚊媒疾病，2024年报告病例超过2400例。在西尼罗河病毒首次在美国出现的纽约州，自20世纪初以来气温已上升超过1.4摄氏度。虽然温度在西尼罗河病毒传播中的作用已得到证实，但其对季节长度的影响尚不清楚。本研究提出以下问题：（1）在过去25年中，纽约州的西尼罗河病毒季节是否延长？（2）季节延长是否与蚊子和人类中更高的西尼罗河病毒发病率相关？以及（3）这些变化是否与宿主感染开始和结束时间的变化有关？我们整合了1999年至2024年县级每日温度、蚊子监测和人类病例数据。我们的结果表明，基于温度适宜性，西尼罗河病毒季节平均延长了24.8天——开始时间提前4天，结束时间推迟20天。更长的季节与蚊子和人类中更高的西尼罗河病毒流行率呈正相关。这些发现强调了气候变化如何重塑媒介传播疾病的物候和负担。随着传播季节延长，许多媒介传播疾病可能面临更大风险，凸显了采取适应性公共卫生应对措施的必要性。
