中国骨关节炎负担的流行病学趋势：1990年至2021年分析及2022年至2050年预测
Epidemiological trends in burden of osteoarthritis in China: an analysis from 1990 to 2021 with forecasts for 2022-2050.
作者信息
Cao Xiaofei, Zhu Ruixuan, Liu Dan, Cheng Yuanyuan, Sun Yanmin, Huang Zhipeng
机构信息
Department of Orthopaedics, Tangdu Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an, China.
The First Clinical Medical College, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
出版信息
Front Public Health. 2025 Jul 23;13:1612596. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1612596. eCollection 2025.
OBJECTIVE
To analyze the epidemiological trends in the burden of osteoarthritis (OA) in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict trends to 2050.
METHODS
The publicly accessible modeling data derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were employed. The annual percent change and the annual average percentage change were calculated to analyze the trend in the burden of OA. The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of OA. The decomposition method was employed to analyze the changes in the burden of OA from 1990 to 2021 in China. Spearman's correlation coefficients were used to assess correlations between the Age-Standardized Rates (ASRs) and the mean Age-Standardized prevalence from 1990 to 2021 in China. The Bayesian age-period cohort model was utilized to forecast the burden until 2050.
RESULTS
From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) of OA in China all exhibited an upward trend. In 2021, the ASIR and ASPR were 554.61 per 100,000 (95% UI: 486.85-619.54) and 7,030.66 per 100,000 (95% UI: 6,211.20-7,831.69), respectively. The ASDR was 244.79 per 100,000 (95% UI: 117.30-491.91). The age-standardized rates of OA were higher among females than among males in 2021. In different age groups, the incidence rate reached its peak in the 50-54 age group for both sexes. The decomposition analysis showed that aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes were driving an increase in the disease burden of osteoarthritis in China. The increase in the ASRs of OA in China is closely linked to the rise in obesity rates. The prediction results indicated that the ASIR first increased and then decreased, while the ASPR and ASDR showed an upward trend.
CONCLUSION
In the future, the burden of OA in China is likely to continue to grow. Greater attention should be given to females aged 50-54 years, and rational prevention and control measures should be formulated.
目的
分析1990年至2021年中国骨关节炎（OA）负担的流行病学趋势，并预测至2050年的趋势。
方法
采用来自《2021年全球疾病负担研究》的公开可用建模数据。计算年度百分比变化和年度平均百分比变化以分析OA负担趋势。使用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型分析年龄、时期和队列对OA发病率、患病率和伤残调整生命年的影响。采用分解方法分析1990年至2021年中国OA负担的变化。使用Spearman相关系数评估1990年至2021年中国年龄标准化率（ASR）与年龄标准化患病率均值之间的相关性。利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测至2050年的负担。
结果
1990年至2021年，中国OA的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）和年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率（ASDR）均呈上升趋势。2021年，ASIR和ASPR分别为每10万人554.61（95%UI：486.85 - 619.54）和每10万人7030.66（95%UI：6211.20 - 7831.69）。ASDR为每10万人244.79（95%UI：117.30 - 491.91）。2021年，女性OA的年龄标准化率高于男性。在不同年龄组中，两性的发病率在50 - 54岁年龄组达到峰值。分解分析表明，老龄化、人口增长和流行病学变化推动了中国骨关节炎疾病负担的增加。中国OA的ASR增加与肥胖率上升密切相关。预测结果表明，ASIR先上升后下降，而ASPR和ASDR呈上升趋势。
结论
未来，中国OA的负担可能会继续增加。应更加关注50 - 54岁的女性，并制定合理的防控措施。
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