森林砍伐减少了巴西亚马逊地区的降雨量和农业收入。
Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon.
机构信息
Centre for Remote Sensing, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Viçosa, Viçosa, Brazil.
出版信息
Nat Commun. 2021 May 10;12(1):2591. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22840-7.
It has been suggested that rainfall in the Amazon decreases if forest loss exceeds some threshold, but the specific value of this threshold remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the relationship between historical deforestation and rainfall at different geographical scales across the Southern Brazilian Amazon (SBA). We also assess impacts of deforestation policy scenarios on the region's agriculture. Forest loss of up to 55-60% within 28 km grid cells enhances rainfall, but further deforestation reduces rainfall precipitously. This threshold is lower at larger scales (45-50% at 56 km and 25-30% at 112 km grid cells), while rainfall decreases linearly within 224 km grid cells. Widespread deforestation results in a hydrological and economic negative-sum game, because lower rainfall and agricultural productivity at larger scales outdo local gains. Under a weak governance scenario, SBA may lose 56% of its forests by 2050. Reducing deforestation prevents agricultural losses in SBA up to US$ 1 billion annually.
有人认为，如果森林砍伐超过某个阈值，亚马逊地区的降雨量将会减少，但这个阈值的具体值仍然不确定。在这里，我们研究了南巴塔哥尼亚亚马逊（SBA）不同地理尺度上历史森林砍伐与降雨量之间的关系。我们还评估了森林砍伐政策方案对该地区农业的影响。在 28km 格网单元内，森林损失高达 55-60%会增加降雨量，但进一步的森林砍伐会急剧减少降雨量。在更大的尺度上（56km 格网单元的 45-50%和 112km 格网单元的 25-30%），这个阈值更低，而在 224km 格网单元内，降雨量呈线性下降。广泛的森林砍伐导致了水文和经济的负面博弈，因为更大规模上的降雨量减少和农业生产力下降超过了局部收益。在弱治理情景下，到 2050 年，南巴塔哥尼亚亚马逊可能会失去 56%的森林。减少森林砍伐每年可防止南巴塔哥尼亚亚马逊农业损失高达 10 亿美元。
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