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卵巢透明细胞癌预测风险评分的开发与验证:一种惩罚回归模型

Development and Validation of Predictive Risk Scores for Ovarian Clear Cell Carcinoma: A Penalized Regression Model.

作者信息

Iyoshi Shohei, Emoto Ryo, Yoshikawa Nobuhisa, Yoshida Kosuke, Yoshihara Masato, Tamauchi Satoshi, Yokoi Akira, Shimizu Yusuke, Ikeda Yoshiki, Niimi Kaoru, Kawai Michiyasu, Matsui Shigeyuki, Kajiyama Hiroaki

机构信息

Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan.

Institute for Advanced Research, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.

出版信息

Cancer Med. 2025 Aug;14(15):e71118. doi: 10.1002/cam4.71118.

DOI:10.1002/cam4.71118
PMID:40776578
Abstract

BACKGROUND

The precision management of ovarian clear cell carcinoma (OCCC) faces limitations due to the absence of personalized prognostic tools. This study aimed to establish predictive risk scores to enable effective stratification and tailored treatment of OCCC.

METHODS

Retrospective data from 206 OCCC patients treated between 2004 and 2019 at two hospitals were analyzed. Penalized regression models were utilized to develop three risk scores based on preoperative laboratory results and intraoperative findings. These scores underwent internal and external validation.

RESULTS

The median follow-up periods were 65.7 and 44.0 months for the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In internal validation with the derivation cohort, all three risk scores effectively identified the high-risk group for tumor recurrence. Upon validation with the external cohort, Risk Score 3, which incorporated variables selected in most cross-validations by the penalized regression (Elastic Net), distinctly differentiated the high- and low-risk groups (p = 0.03). Risk Score 2, consisting solely of preoperatively available variables, also demonstrated marginal significance (p = 0.08).

CONCLUSION

Our findings underscore the significance and utility of the developed risk scores in tailoring personalized treatments for patients with OCCC.

摘要

背景

由于缺乏个性化的预后工具,卵巢透明细胞癌(OCCC)的精准管理面临局限。本研究旨在建立预测风险评分,以实现对OCCC患者的有效分层和个体化治疗。

方法

分析了2004年至2019年间在两家医院接受治疗的206例OCCC患者的回顾性数据。利用惩罚回归模型,根据术前实验室检查结果和术中发现制定了三个风险评分。这些评分进行了内部和外部验证。

结果

推导队列和验证队列的中位随访期分别为65.7个月和44.0个月。在推导队列的内部验证中,所有三个风险评分均有效地识别出肿瘤复发的高危组。在外部队列验证时,风险评分3纳入了惩罚回归(弹性网络)在大多数交叉验证中选择的变量,能明显区分高危组和低危组(p = 0.03)。仅由术前可用变量组成的风险评分2也显示出边缘显著性(p = 0.08)。

结论

我们的研究结果强调了所制定的风险评分在为OCCC患者量身定制个性化治疗中的重要性和实用性。

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本文引用的文献

1
Tumor Size Is an Independent Prognostic Factor for Stage I Ovarian Clear Cell Carcinoma: A Large Retrospective Cohort Study of 1,000 Patients.肿瘤大小是Ⅰ期卵巢透明细胞癌的独立预后因素:一项对1000例患者的大型回顾性队列研究
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Clear cell carcinoma of the ovary: Epidemiology, pathological and biological features, treatment options and clinical outcomes.卵巢透明细胞癌:流行病学、病理和生物学特征、治疗选择和临床结局。
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Clinical characteristics and prognosis of ovarian clear cell carcinoma: a 10-year retrospective study.
卵巢透明细胞癌的临床特征和预后:一项 10 年回顾性研究。
BMC Cancer. 2021 Mar 25;21(1):322. doi: 10.1186/s12885-021-08061-7.
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Deep learning in cancer pathology: a new generation of clinical biomarkers.深度学习在癌症病理学中的应用:新一代临床生物标志物。
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The Preoperative Prognostic Nutritional Index for the Prediction of Outcomes in Patients with Early-Stage Ovarian Clear Cell Carcinoma.术前预后营养指数预测早期卵巢透明细胞癌患者结局的价值。
Sci Rep. 2020 Apr 28;10(1):7135. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-64171-5.
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Prognosis of ovarian clear cell cancer compared with other epithelial cancer types: A population-based analysis.卵巢透明细胞癌与其他上皮癌类型的预后比较:一项基于人群的分析。
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Prognostic value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in early-stage ovarian clear-cell carcinoma.中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值对早期卵巢透明细胞癌的预后价值。
J Gynecol Oncol. 2019 Nov;30(6):e85. doi: 10.3802/jgo.2019.30.e85.
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Application of Artificial Intelligence for Preoperative Diagnostic and Prognostic Prediction in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Based on Blood Biomarkers.基于血液生物标志物的人工智能在卵巢上皮性癌术前诊断和预后预测中的应用。
Clin Cancer Res. 2019 May 15;25(10):3006-3015. doi: 10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-18-3378. Epub 2019 Apr 11.
9
Trends and characteristics of epithelial ovarian cancer in Japan between 2002 and 2015: A JSGO-JSOG joint study.2002 年至 2015 年日本上皮性卵巢癌的趋势和特征:JSGO-JSOG 联合研究。
Gynecol Oncol. 2019 Jun;153(3):589-596. doi: 10.1016/j.ygyno.2019.03.243. Epub 2019 Mar 21.
10
PROBAST: A Tool to Assess Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies: Explanation and Elaboration.PROBAST:一种用于评估偏倚风险和预测模型研究适用性的工具:说明和阐述。
Ann Intern Med. 2019 Jan 1;170(1):W1-W33. doi: 10.7326/M18-1377.