Weitzman Abigail, Barber Jennifer, Heinze Justin, Kusunoki Yasamin, Zimmerman Marc
Department of Sociology and Population Research Center, University of Texas.
Department of Sociology and Kinsey Institute, Indiana University.
AJS. 2023 Nov;129(3):856-906. doi: 10.1086/727892.
We merge information on the date and location of homicides in Flint, MI with georeferenced weekly panel data from the Relationship Dynamics and Social Life study to assess how and why nearby homicides immediately impact young women's risk of pregnancy. Women's probability of conceiving a pregnancy increased in weeks when homicides occurred within .25 miles of their homes relative to in other weeks. This increase in pregnancy risk reflected decreases in contraceptive use, especially of short-acting hormonal methods. Contraceptive changes, however, were not accompanied by immediate changes in feelings about pregnancy or contraception, nor by immediate changes in contraceptive access or forgetfulness. Rather, in weeks when nearby homicides occurred, women were less likely to use contraception "just because," suggesting a marked decline in their reproductive vigilance. Although the small sample causes uncertainty about the magnitude of these differences, when they culminate in pregnancy, the immediate consequences of nearby homicides can have lifelong ramifications for young adults.
我们将密歇根州弗林特市凶杀案的日期和地点信息与“关系动态与社会生活研究”中的地理参考每周面板数据相结合，以评估附近的凶杀案如何以及为何会立即影响年轻女性的怀孕风险。与其他周相比，当凶杀案发生在距离她们家0.25英里范围内的几周内，女性怀孕的概率会增加。这种怀孕风险的增加反映了避孕措施使用的减少，尤其是短效激素避孕方法。然而，避孕措施的变化并没有伴随着对怀孕或避孕感受的立即变化，也没有伴随着避孕措施获取或遗忘情况的立即变化。相反，在附近发生凶杀案的几周里，女性“仅仅因为”而使用避孕措施的可能性较小，这表明她们的生殖警惕性明显下降。尽管样本量小导致这些差异的程度存在不确定性，但当这些差异最终导致怀孕时，附近凶杀案的直接后果可能会对年轻人产生终身影响。
