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金黄色葡萄球菌血流感染患者院内死亡预测列线图的构建与验证

Construction and validation of a predictive in-hospital mortality nomogram in patients with staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection.

作者信息

Xie Xiangquan, Wu Chuncai, Zhou Jing, Jiang Shaohong, Shen Baoying, Xu Qiaoli, Huang Chuanbin

机构信息

Department of Infection Control, Zhangzhou Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Zhangzhou, Fujian, China.

The Laboratory Department, Zhangzhou Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Zhangzhou, Fujian, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 13;15(1):29658. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-15826-8.

Abstract

We aimed to construct and validate a predictive nomogram to evaluate in-hospital mortality of patients with S.aureus BSI. A 10-year retrospective cohort design was conducted to analyze data from 484 patients diagnosed with S. aureus BSI between 2014 and 2023. Clinical data from 339 patients (2014 to 2021) were harnessed in training cohort to develop a predictive nomogram, which underwent rigorous internal validation. An independent cohort of 145 patients (2022 to 2023) were collected for external validation. The prognostic performance of the model was comprehensively assessed using AUC, calibration curve, and DCA. We ultimately identified several key factors that were incorporated into the final prognostic nomogram: the ECFC score, the CCI score, procalcitonin levels, admission to the intensive care unit, and multimicrobial BSI. Internal validation was assessed via 5-fold cross-validation, repeated 400 times on the training cohort, yielding an average AUC value of 0.930 vs. 0.940 of the total. External validation further confirmed the nomogram's accuracy, with an AUC value of 0.929. Additionally, the calibration curves and DCAs revealed excellent consistency and substantial net clinical benefits in both cohorts. The development of this predictive nomogram marks a substantial breakthrough in the management of patients with S. aureus BSI.

摘要

我们旨在构建并验证一个预测列线图,以评估金黄色葡萄球菌血流感染(BSI)患者的院内死亡率。采用10年回顾性队列设计,分析2014年至2023年间484例诊断为金黄色葡萄球菌BSI患者的数据。利用339例患者(2014年至2021年)的临床数据作为训练队列来开发预测列线图,并进行严格的内部验证。收集145例患者(2022年至2023年)的独立队列进行外部验证。使用受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)、校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)全面评估模型的预后性能。我们最终确定了几个关键因素并纳入最终的预后列线图:内皮祖细胞分数(ECFC)、Charlson合并症指数(CCI)、降钙素原水平、入住重症监护病房以及多重微生物血流感染。通过在训练队列上重复400次五折交叉验证来评估内部验证,得到的平均AUC值为0.930,而总体为0.940。外部验证进一步证实了列线图的准确性,AUC值为0.929。此外,校准曲线和DCA显示两个队列均具有良好的一致性和显著的净临床获益。这种预测列线图的开发标志着金黄色葡萄球菌BSI患者管理方面的重大突破。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/995d/12350811/4a69898393aa/41598_2025_15826_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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