Junge-Bornholt Lea Elisabeth, Wachsmann Fabian Dominik, Maurer Heiko, Hegele Mathias, Müller Hermann, Maurer Lisa Katharina
Neuromotor Behavior Laboratory, Department of Psychology and Sport Science, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany.
Center of Mind, Brain and Behavior, Universities of Marburg, Giessen and Darmstadt, Germany.
PLoS One. 2025 Aug 22;20(8):e0330545. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0330545. eCollection 2025.
Skilled athletes, such as basketball players, seem to anticipate the outcome of their actions, likely due to well-developed internal models that enhance predictive accuracy. This study explores whether experienced basketball players can verbally predict their free throw outcomes above chance, examining the role of expertise and potential biases in prediction accuracy. Therefore, 19 experienced basketball players performed 500 free throws in a laboratory setting. Within 2.5 seconds of visual and acoustic occlusion after ball release, they had to predict the result of every second trial as either a hit or a miss. Individual prediction accuracies above chance were calculated, and the hit bias was quantified by a signal detection theory measure (criterion c). Speech characteristics (latency and amplitude) were used as an additional proxy to investigate the prediction process. It was hypothesized that experienced players would make faster predictions of successful shots and would articulate these with greater volume compared to unsuccessful ones, reflecting the processing of available information about their throw execution and heightened response bias toward success. Results showed that participants were able to significantly predict their free throw outcomes above chance level. An earlier described hit bias could be replicated and was further observed as a louder and faster articulation of hits than misses. Overall, natural motor experts, in this case basketball players, seem to access their internal models and use the gathered information to predict the outcome of their free throws. However, they show a bias to predict hits, which is also manifested in the speech characteristics of latency and amplitude.
像篮球运动员这样的熟练运动员似乎能够预测自己行为的结果，这可能是由于他们拥有发达的内部模型，从而提高了预测准确性。本研究探讨了经验丰富的篮球运动员能否在随机水平之上通过言语预测罚球结果，考察专业技能以及预测准确性中潜在偏差的作用。因此，19名经验丰富的篮球运动员在实验室环境中进行了500次罚球。在球出手后2.5秒的视觉和听觉遮挡期间，他们必须预测每一次罚球的结果是命中还是未命中。计算了高于随机水平的个人预测准确率，并通过信号检测理论指标（标准c）对命中偏差进行了量化。言语特征（潜伏期和振幅）被用作探究预测过程的额外指标。研究假设是，与未命中的罚球相比，经验丰富的球员对成功罚球的预测速度更快，并且会更大声地表达这些预测，这反映了他们对罚球执行的可用信息的处理以及对成功的更高反应偏差。结果表明，参与者能够在高于随机水平的情况下显著预测自己的罚球结果。之前描述的命中偏差能够被复制，并且进一步观察到，命中的言语表达比未命中更大声、更快。总体而言，在这种情况下即篮球运动员，自然运动专家似乎能够运用他们的内部模型，并利用收集到的信息来预测罚球结果。然而，他们在预测命中方面表现出偏差，这也体现在潜伏期和振幅的言语特征上。
