Smith Samuel M, Webb Colleen T, Sellman Stefan, Lindström Tom, Beck-Johnson Lindsay M
Graduate Degree Program in Ecology and Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2025 Aug 21;12(8):250598. doi: 10.1098/rsos.250598. eCollection 2025 Aug.
Understanding underlying transmission dynamics is necessary to effectively control an infectious disease outbreak. In the likely event that managers do not know where to target control resources because drivers of transmission are unknown, it may be desirable to tailor control strategies to a given outbreak by implementing control actions gradually in response to changes in the outbreak (adaptive) rather than all at once (fixed). Adaptive control strategies may also prevent over-reaction and thus causing unnecessary socioeconomic harm. However, it remains unclear whether the benefits of adaptive control strategies outweigh the potential of under-reacting and causing larger outbreaks. To weigh this trade-off, we used a validated national scale foot and mouth disease transmission model to compare how adaptive and fixed control strategies as well as various attributes of the control process affect outbreak size. We find that adaptive control strategies do not cost less for the vast majority of outbreaks, but infrequently result in much larger and more costly outbreaks owing to decision-making time and case reporting lags. This study emphasizes the cost of under-reacting to a disease outbreak and that minimizing decision-making time should be a key consideration when developing outbreak response guidelines.
了解潜在的传播动态对于有效控制传染病爆发至关重要。如果管理人员因传播驱动因素不明而不知将控制资源投向何处，那么针对特定疫情逐步实施控制措施（适应性）而非一次性全部实施（固定性）来量身定制控制策略可能是可取的。适应性控制策略还可防止过度反应，从而避免造成不必要的社会经济损害。然而，适应性控制策略的益处是否超过反应不足并导致更大规模疫情爆发的可能性仍不明确。为权衡这种利弊，我们使用经过验证的全国性口蹄疫传播模型，比较适应性和固定性控制策略以及控制过程的各种属性如何影响疫情规模。我们发现，对于绝大多数疫情而言，适应性控制策略成本并不更低，但由于决策时间和病例报告延迟，偶尔会导致规模大得多且成本更高的疫情爆发。本研究强调了对疾病爆发反应不足的代价，并且在制定疫情应对指南时，尽量缩短决策时间应是一个关键考虑因素。
