Arct Aneta, Martyka Rafał, Miler Krzysztof, Skorb Karolina, Gustafsson Lars, Drobniak Szymon M
Institute of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 7, 30-387, Kraków, Poland.
Animal Ecology, Department of Animal Ecology/Ecology and Genetics, Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18 D, 752 36, Uppsala, Sweden.
Front Zool. 2025 Aug 25;22(1):23. doi: 10.1186/s12983-025-00569-z.
Understanding how weather conditions during early development influence reproductive success is essential for predicting avian responses to climate change. We used a 40-year dataset from a nest-box population of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) to examine how temperature and precipitation during the incubation and nestling periods affected three key components of reproductive performance: hatchling number, fledgling production, and local offspring recruitment. We found that higher ambient temperatures during the nestling period were associated with a decreased probability of brood failure and a higher number of recruits. In contrast, a higher sum of precipitation during the nestling stage was associated with an increased likelihood of brood failure. Interestingly, weather conditions during incubation had no statistically detectable influence on reproductive performance. Moreover, our results indicated that the within-season variation in climatic conditions, rather than the between-season variation, was primarily associated with reproductive outcomes. These findings underscore the importance of considering both overall climate conditions across seasons and short-term weather parameters within breeding seasons when evaluating reproductive success and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change.
了解早期发育阶段的天气状况如何影响繁殖成功率对于预测鸟类对气候变化的反应至关重要。我们利用一个来自领姬鹟（Ficedula albicollis）巢箱种群的40年数据集，来研究孵化期和育雏期的温度和降水如何影响繁殖性能的三个关键组成部分：雏鸟数量、幼鸟产出和本地后代补充。我们发现，育雏期较高的环境温度与育雏失败概率降低和补充个体数量增加有关。相反，育雏阶段较高的降水总量与育雏失败的可能性增加有关。有趣的是，孵化期的天气状况对繁殖性能没有统计学上可检测到的影响。此外，我们的结果表明，气候条件的季节内变化而非季节间变化主要与繁殖结果相关。这些发现强调了在评估繁殖成功率和预测气候变化的生态后果时，既要考虑跨季节的总体气候条件，也要考虑繁殖季节内的短期天气参数的重要性。
