Henry Roslyn C
School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, King's College, Aberdeen, UK.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Aug;31(8):e70477. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70477.
This perspective argues that current methods for predicting biodiversity loss from future land use and climate change models are incomplete without incorporating projections of genetic diversity. Without methods to estimate current and future changes in genetic diversity, we cannot fully anticipate extinction risk, nor can we measure progress toward conservation targets. This oversight threatens to undermine our most ambitious biodiversity goals. We need a vanguard shift in how forecasting is approached, one that integrates genetic data into global biodiversity models.
这种观点认为，当前用于从未来土地利用和气候变化模型预测生物多样性丧失的方法，如果不纳入遗传多样性预测，就是不完整的。如果没有估计当前和未来遗传多样性变化的方法，我们就无法充分预测灭绝风险，也无法衡量在实现保护目标方面的进展。这种疏忽有可能破坏我们最宏伟的生物多样性目标。我们需要在预测方法上进行先锋性转变，即将遗传数据纳入全球生物多样性模型。
