Schets Franciska M, Pol-Hofstad Irene E, van den Berg Harold H J L, Schijven Jack F
Centre for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Microorganisms. 2025 Aug 14;13(8):1893. doi: 10.3390/microorganisms13081893.
species are part of the indigenous microbial flora in marine, brackish and fresh water in moderate and tropical climates that thrive and multiply in water at elevated water temperatures. The number of human non-cholera infections due to exposure to contaminated surface water increases worldwide. To study possible climate change-related changes in concentrations, prevalent species, and risks of illness, water samples from coastal and inland water bodies in the Netherlands were tested in 2019-2021. Data were combined with data from previous studies in 2009-2012 in order to develop a regression model to predict current and future risks of illness. Year-to-year and site-specific variations in concentrations and water temperature were observed, but there was no trend of increasing concentrations or water temperature over time. In 2019-2021, species distribution had not changed since 2009-2012; and were still the dominant species. Statistical analysis demonstrated a significant effect of water temperature on concentrations. The model predicted a concentration increase of a factor of 1.5 for each degree Celsius temperature increase. Predicted risks of illness were higher at higher water temperatures, and higher for children than for adults. Based on the most recent climate change scenarios for the Netherlands, the risks of illness will increase with factors ranging from 1.6 to 7.6 in 2050 and 2100. These outcomes warrant adequate information about risks to water managers, public health workers and the general public.
在温带和热带气候的海洋、咸淡水及淡水中，某些物种是本地微生物群落的一部分，它们在水温升高的水中茁壮成长并繁殖。全球范围内，因接触受污染地表水而导致的人类非霍乱感染病例数量不断增加。为了研究与气候变化相关的浓度、优势物种及疾病风险变化，2019年至2021年对荷兰沿海和内陆水体的水样进行了检测。数据与2009年至2012年之前研究的数据相结合，以建立回归模型来预测当前和未来的疾病风险。观察到浓度和水温存在逐年及特定地点的变化，但随着时间推移，浓度或水温没有上升趋势。在2019年至2021年，自2009年至2012年以来物种分布没有变化；某些物种仍然是优势物种。统计分析表明水温对浓度有显著影响。该模型预测，温度每升高1摄氏度，浓度将增加1.5倍。预测的疾病风险在水温较高时更高，儿童的风险高于成人。根据荷兰最新的气候变化情景，到2050年和2100年，疾病风险将增加1.6至7.6倍。这些结果需要向水资源管理者、公共卫生工作者和公众提供有关疾病风险的充分信息。
