School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk, UK.
Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Weymouth, Dorset, UK.
Sci Rep. 2023 Mar 23;13(1):3893. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-28247-2.
Vibrio vulnificus is an opportunistic bacterial pathogen, occurring in warm low-salinity waters. V. vulnificus wound infections due to seawater exposure are infrequent but mortality rates are high (~ 18%). Seawater bacterial concentrations are increasing but changing disease pattern assessments or climate change projections are rare. Here, using a 30-year database of V. vulnificus cases for the Eastern USA, changing disease distribution was assessed. An ecological niche model was developed, trained and validated to identify links to oceanographic and climate data. This model was used to predict future disease distribution using data simulated by seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) which belong to the newest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Risk was estimated by calculating the total population within 200 km of the disease distribution. Predictions were generated for different "pathways" of global socioeconomic development which incorporate projections of greenhouse gas emissions and demographic change. In Eastern USA between 1988 and 2018, V. vulnificus wound infections increased eightfold (10-80 cases p.a.) and the northern case limit shifted northwards 48 km p.a. By 2041-2060, V. vulnificus infections may expand their current range to encompass major population centres around New York (40.7°N). Combined with a growing and increasingly elderly population, annual case numbers may double. By 2081-2100 V. vulnificus infections may be present in every Eastern USA State under medium-to-high future emissions and warming. The projected expansion of V. vulnificus wound infections stresses the need for increased individual and public health awareness in these areas.
创伤弧菌是一种机会致病菌，存在于温暖的低盐水域。因暴露于海水而导致的创伤弧菌伤口感染并不常见，但死亡率很高（~18%）。海水细菌浓度在增加，但很少有关于疾病模式评估或气候变化预测的变化。在这里，使用美国东部 30 年的创伤弧菌病例数据库，评估了疾病分布的变化。开发、训练和验证了一个生态位模型，以确定与海洋学和气候数据的联系。该模型用于使用属于最新耦合模型比较计划 (CMIP6) 的七个全球气候模型 (GCM) 模拟的数据来预测未来的疾病分布。通过计算疾病分布 200 公里范围内的总人口来估计风险。根据包含温室气体排放和人口变化预测的全球社会经济发展的不同“途径”来生成预测。在美国东部，1988 年至 2018 年间，创伤弧菌伤口感染增加了八倍（每年 10-80 例），北方病例界限每年向北移动 48 公里。到 2041-2060 年，创伤弧菌感染可能会扩大其目前的范围，包括纽约周围的主要人口中心（40.7°N）。再加上不断增长和日益老龄化的人口，每年的病例数可能会增加一倍。到 2081-2100 年，创伤弧菌感染可能在所有美国东部州都存在，这些州的未来排放量和变暖程度处于中高水平。创伤弧菌伤口感染的预计扩张强调了在这些地区提高个人和公众健康意识的必要性。
