Yalçın Nadir, Kaşıkcı Merve, Kelleci-Çakır Burcu, Demirkan Kutay, Allegaert Karel, Halil Meltem, Doğanay Mutlu, Abbasoğlu Osman
Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Hacettepe University, Ankara 06100, Türkiye.
Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, Hacettepe University, Ankara 06100, Türkiye.
Nutrients. 2025 Aug 21;17(16):2716. doi: 10.3390/nu17162716.
This study aimed to develop and validate a new machine learning (ML)-based screening tool for a two-step prediction of the need for and type of nutritional therapy (enteral, parenteral, or combined) using Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002) and other demographic parameters from the Optimal Nutrition Care for All (ONCA) national cohort data. This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 191,028 patients, with data on age, gender, body mass index (BMI), NRS-2002 score, presence of cancer, and hospital unit type. In the first step, classification models estimated whether patients required nutritional therapy, while the second step predicted the type of therapy. The dataset was divided into 60% training, 20% validation, and 20% test sets. Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), deep learning (DL), Elastic Net (EN), and Naive Bayes (NB) algorithms were used for classification. Performance was evaluated using AUC, accuracy, balanced accuracy, MCC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and F-score. Of the patients, 54.6% were male, 9.2% had cancer, and 49.9% were hospitalized in internal medicine units. According to NRS-2002, 11.6% were at risk of malnutrition (≥3 points). The DL algorithm performed best in both classification steps. The top three variables for determining the need for nutritional therapy were severe illness, reduced dietary intake in the last week, and mild impaired nutritional status (AUC = 0.933). For determining the type of nutritional therapy, the most important variables were severe illness, severely impaired nutritional status, and ICU admission (AUC = 0.741). Adding gender, cancer status, and ward type to NRS-2002 improved AUC by 0.6% and 3.27% for steps 1 and 2, respectively. Incorporating gender, cancer status, and ward type into the widely used and validated NRS-2002 led to the development of a new scale that accurately classifies nutritional therapy type. This ML-enhanced model has the potential to be integrated into clinical workflows as a decision support system to guide nutritional therapy, although further external validation with larger multinational cohorts is needed.
本研究旨在开发并验证一种基于机器学习(ML)的筛查工具,用于分两步预测营养治疗的需求及类型(肠内、肠外或联合),该预测使用营养风险筛查2002(NRS - 2002)以及来自全民最佳营养护理(ONCA)全国队列数据的其他人口统计学参数。这项多中心回顾性队列研究纳入了191,028名患者,收集了年龄、性别、体重指数(BMI)、NRS - 2002评分、癌症存在情况以及医院科室类型等数据。第一步,分类模型估计患者是否需要营养治疗,第二步预测治疗类型。数据集被分为60%的训练集、20%的验证集和20%的测试集。使用随机森林(RF)、人工神经网络(ANN)、深度学习(DL)、弹性网络(EN)和朴素贝叶斯(NB)算法进行分类。使用AUC、准确率、平衡准确率、MCC、敏感性、特异性、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和F分数评估性能。患者中,54.6%为男性,9.2%患有癌症,49.9%在内科病房住院。根据NRS - 2002,11.6%存在营养不良风险(≥3分)。DL算法在两个分类步骤中表现最佳。确定营养治疗需求的前三个变量是重症、上周饮食摄入量减少以及轻度营养状况受损(AUC = 0.933)。对于确定营养治疗类型,最重要的变量是重症、严重营养状况受损和入住重症监护病房(AUC = 0.741)。将性别、癌症状态和病房类型添加到NRS - 2002中,第一步和第二步的AUC分别提高了0.6%和3.27%。将性别、癌症状态和病房类型纳入广泛使用并经过验证的NRS - 2002后,开发出了一种新的量表,可准确分类营养治疗类型。这种ML增强模型有潜力作为决策支持系统整合到临床工作流程中以指导营养治疗,不过还需要使用更大的跨国队列进行进一步的外部验证。