Lebedev Aleksey, Kireev Dmitry, Kirichenko Alina, Mezhenskaya Ekaterina, Antonova Anastasiia, Bobkov Vyacheslav, Lapovok Ilya, Shlykova Anastasia, Lopatukhin Alexey, Shemshura Andrey, Kulagin Valery, Kovelenov Aleksei, Cherdantseva Alexandra, Filoniuk Natalia, Turbina Galina, Ermakov Alexei, Monakhov Nikita, Piterskiy Michael, Semenov Aleksandr, Shtrek Sergej, Sannikov Aleksej, Zaytseva Natalia, Peksheva Olga, Suladze Aleksandr, Kolpakov Dmitry, Kotova Valeriia, Bazykina Elena, Akimkin Vasiliy, Bobkova Marina
I. Mechnikov Research Institute for Vaccines and Sera, 105064 Moscow, Russia.
Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, 111123 Moscow, Russia.
Pathogens. 2025 Jul 26;14(8):738. doi: 10.3390/pathogens14080738.
Regional HIV-1 epidemics are evolving with distinct patterns in transmission routes, subtype distribution, and molecular transmission cluster (MTCs) characteristics. We analyzed 9500 HIV-1 cases diagnosed over 30 years using phylogenetic and network methods, integrating molecular, epidemiological, demographic, and behavioral data. Subtype A6 remains dominant nationally (80.6%), followed by 63_02A6 (7.9%), subtype B (5.6%), 02_AG (1.2%), 03_A6B (0.7%), and 14/73_BG (0.6%). Non-A6 infections were more common among males (OR 1.51) and men who have sex with men (OR 7.33). Network analysis identified 421 MTCs, with 256 active clusters. Clustering was more likely among young individuals (OR: 1.31), those not receiving antiretroviral therapy (OR: 2.70), and injecting drug users (OR: 1.28). Non-A6 subtypes showed a higher likelihood of clustering. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that local clusters of the major subtypes originated between the late 1970s (subtype B) and the mid-2000s (63_02A6) with links to populations in Eastern Europe, Central Asia (subtypes A6, 63_02A6, 02_AG, 03_A6B), and Western Europe and the Americas (subtype B, 14/73_BG). These findings indicate a complex, evolving regional epidemic transitioning from subtype A6 dominance to a more diverse mix of subtypes. The ability of non-A6 subtypes to form active MTCs suggests their establishment in the local population.
区域人类免疫缺陷病毒1型（HIV-1）流行正以不同模式在传播途径、亚型分布和分子传播簇（MTCs）特征方面不断演变。我们运用系统发育和网络方法，整合分子、流行病学、人口统计学和行为学数据，分析了30多年间诊断出的9500例HIV-1病例。A6亚型在全国仍占主导地位（80.6%），其次是63_02A6（7.9%）、B亚型（5.6%）、02_AG（1.2%）、03_A6B（0.7%）和14/73_BG（0.6%）。非A6感染在男性（比值比1.51）和男男性行为者中更为常见（比值比7.33）。网络分析识别出421个MTCs，其中256个为活跃簇。年轻人（比值比：1.31）、未接受抗逆转录病毒治疗者（比值比：2.70）和注射吸毒者（比值比：1.28）更有可能出现聚集现象。非A6亚型显示出更高的聚集可能性。系统发育分析表明，主要亚型的本地簇起源于20世纪70年代末（B亚型）至21世纪中期（63_02A6），与东欧、中亚（A6、63_02A6、02_AG、03_A6B亚型）以及西欧和美洲（B亚型、14/73_BG）的人群存在关联。这些发现表明该区域流行情况复杂且不断演变，正从A6亚型主导转变为更多样化的亚型组合。非A6亚型形成活跃MTCs的能力表明它们已在当地人群中立足。
