Okunlola Ayodeji, Davis Matthew, Kumar Amit
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
Nat Commun. 2025 Aug 28;16(1):8039. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-62952-y.
Electrolytic hydrogen can support the decarbonization of the power sector. Achieving cost-effective power-to-gas-to-power (PGP) integration through targeted emissions pricing can accelerate the adoption of electrolytic hydrogen in greenhouse gas-intensive power sectors. This study develops a framework for assessing the economic viability of electrolytic hydrogen-based PGP systems in fossil fuel-dependent grids, while considering the competing objectives of the electricity system operator, a risk-averse investor, and the government. Here we show that, given the risk-averse investor's inherent pursuit of profit maximization, a break-even carbon abatement cost of at least 57 Canadian Dollars per tonne of CO₂ by 2030 from the government, with a shift in electricity market dispatch rules from sole system marginal price-reduction to system-wide emissions reduction, is essential to stimulate price discovery for low-cost hydrogen production and contingency reserve provision by the PGP system. This work can help policymakers capture and incentivize the role of electrolytic hydrogen in low-carbon power sector planning.
电解氢有助于电力部门的脱碳。通过有针对性的排放定价实现具有成本效益的电力-天然气-电力（PGP）整合，可以加速在温室气体密集型电力部门采用电解氢。本研究建立了一个框架，用于评估在依赖化石燃料的电网中基于电解氢的PGP系统的经济可行性，同时考虑电力系统运营商、风险规避型投资者和政府的相互竞争目标。我们在此表明，鉴于风险规避型投资者对利润最大化的内在追求，到2030年政府至少每吨二氧化碳57加元的盈亏平衡碳减排成本，以及电力市场调度规则从单纯的系统边际价格降低转向全系统减排，对于刺激PGP系统进行低成本制氢的价格发现和提供应急储备至关重要。这项工作可以帮助政策制定者认识并激励电解氢在低碳电力部门规划中的作用。
