Bistline John E T, Binsted Matthew, Blanford Geoffrey, Boyd Gale, Browning Morgan, Cai Yongxia, Edmonds Jae, Fawcett Allen A, Fuhrman Jay, Gao Ruying, Harris Chioke, Hoehne Christopher, Iyer Gokul, Johnson Jeremiah X, Kaplan P Ozge, Loughlin Dan, Mahajan Megan, Mai Trieu, McFarland James R, McJeon Haewon, Melaina Marc, Mousavi Seyed Shahabeddin, Muratori Matteo, Orvis Robbie, Prabhu Amogh, Rossmann Charles, Sands Ronald D, Sarmiento Luis, Showalter Sharon, Sinha Aditya, Starke Emma, Stewart Eric, Vaillancourt Kathleen, Weyant John, Wood Frances, Yuan Mei
EPRI, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
Energy Clim Chang. 2025 Dec 1;6. doi: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100191.
Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. We investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act's energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending-revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1% to 3.7% of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06% to 0.31% reduction in economy-wide CO emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.
许多国家、次国家辖区和公司都在设定净零排放目标；然而，在实现这些目标的策略、政策措施、技术差距和经济影响方面仍存在问题。我们利用与14个能源经济模型的多模型比较结果，研究了到2050年美国实现全经济范围净零碳排放的潜在政策影响。模型结果表明，实现净零碳排放目标取决于加速部署近年来成本迅速下降的零排放和低排放技术（包括风能、太阳能、电池存储和电动汽车）以及相对新兴的技术选项（包括碳捕获与封存、先进生物燃料、低碳氢气、先进核能和长期储能）的政策。虽然净零政策可能会降低化石燃料消耗，包括大幅减少煤炭和石油使用，但实现净零排放并不一定意味着逐步淘汰所有化石燃料。模型结果表明，《降低通胀法案》中的能源和气候条款会加大近期的脱碳力度，但净零政策对长期结果的影响更大。严格的气候政策可能会对税收和政府支出产生重大财政影响——2050年，各模型中碳定价和碳清除补贴带来的收入占国内生产总值的比例在0.1%至3.7%之间。相对于当前政策的参考情景，每公吨碳价格提高1美元会使全经济范围的碳排放减少0.06%至0.31%。在参考政策和净零政策下，许多模型显示，整个经济的能源支出相对于如今会减少，尤其是作为国内生产总值的一部分，这主要是由于终端使用电气化和能源效率提高。
