Zhang Hua, Chen Chunyun, Li Xin
Beijing Key Laboratory of Environmental Remote Sensing and Digital Cities, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Aug 29;20(8):e0330948. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0330948. eCollection 2025.
Individuals in different life stages have different intentions and reasons for migration, which leads to differences in the spatial patterns of migration across age groups. This paper aims to reveal the different patterns of inter-provincial migration across age groups and the underlying driving factors to foster a deeper understanding of migration phenomena in China and support an appropriate policy response. Using data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey and an extended gravity model with lasso-penalized Poisson regression, we reveal significant heterogeneity in migration patterns among different age groups. In terms of spatial patterns, while people of all age groups tend to migrate from less developed regions to more developed regions, the migration flows of the working-age population are primarily short-distance relocations from populous central provinces to economically developed areas, whereas elderly individuals migrate predominantly from northern regions to Beijing and from southern regions to Shanghai. In terms of influencing factors, while economic considerations drive migration across all age groups, economic opportunities play a significantly stronger role in the working-age population. In contrast, elderly individuals tend to prioritize environmental comfort in their destination choices and are less constrained by distance.
处于不同生命阶段的个体有不同的迁移意图和原因，这导致了不同年龄组迁移空间模式的差异。本文旨在揭示不同年龄组的省际迁移模式差异及其潜在驱动因素，以加深对中国迁移现象的理解，并支持制定适当的政策应对措施。利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和带有套索惩罚泊松回归的扩展引力模型，我们揭示了不同年龄组迁移模式存在显著异质性。在空间模式方面，虽然所有年龄组的人都倾向于从不发达地区向发达地区迁移，但劳动年龄人口的迁移流主要是从人口众多的中部省份到经济发达地区的短距离迁移，而老年人主要从北方地区迁移到北京，从南方地区迁移到上海。在影响因素方面，虽然经济因素驱动所有年龄组的迁移，但经济机会在劳动年龄人口中发挥着显著更强的作用。相比之下，老年人在选择目的地时往往更看重环境舒适度，且受距离的限制较小。
