Saunders H
Ophthalmic Physiol Opt. 1985;5(4):391-5.
The validity and efficacy of the prognosis equation published by Saunders (1984b) is tested against previously reported longitudinal data. In a fair and random sample and over a short interval, nearly 60% of the sample was found to have a prediction error of less than 0.25 DS and, in 92%, the error involved was less than 0.5 DS. Long-term prediction was found to have a less favourable outcome but 50% were correct within an error of 0.5 DS and 90% were found to have a prediction error of less than 1 DS. The largest prediction errors occur in the medium to high myopes whose myopia progresses rapidly.
针对此前报告的纵向数据，对桑德斯（1984b）发表的预后方程的有效性和效能进行了检验。在一个公平且随机的样本中，且在较短时间间隔内，发现近60%的样本预测误差小于0.25屈光度，92%的样本所涉及的误差小于0.5屈光度。发现长期预测的结果不太理想，但50%的预测在0.5屈光度的误差范围内是正确的，90%的预测误差小于1屈光度。最大的预测误差出现在近视进展迅速的中高度近视人群中。
