Zhang Xinjun, Fan Hua, Yu Qingwen, Tong Xuhan, Rao Xiyun, Tang Ting, Feng Lanlan, Shi Yongmin, Xu Yuheng, Wang Mingwei, Cheng Yongran
Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, 310015, Zhejiang Province, China.
School of Clinical Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Science and Technology, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, 471003, Henan, China.
Thyroid Res. 2025 Sep 2;18(1):43. doi: 10.1186/s13044-025-00260-9.
BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine tumor, impacting patients' quality of life and contributing to a significant societal burden. This study aims to estimate the global burden of thyroid cancer attributable to High Body Mass Index(HBMI) over the past 30 years. METHODS: The mortality rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) attributable to HBMI for thyroid cancer were extracted. A generalized linear model with a Gaussian distribution was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in ASRs, quantifying the temporal trends in the global burden of thyroid cancer due to HBMI. The strength and direction of the association between the Social Developmeant Index (SDI) and DALY rates were measured using Spearman's rank correlation. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict deaths patterns of thyroid cancer from 2020 to 2035. RESULTS: Globally, the DALYs for thyroid cancer increased from 1.49 in 1990 to 1.68 in 2021, with an EAPC of 0.377 (95% CI: 0.342-0.411). 127 countries or regions showed an upward trend. This trend was particularly pronounced in low SDI, middle SDI, and low-middle SDI regions, while a declining trend was observed in high SDI and high-middle SDI regions.The global ASR of death(ASDR) and DALYs were all higher in females than in males.From 2020 to 2035, the global burden of thyroid cancer, measured in DALYs and ASDR, are both projected to exhibit a gradual upward trend. CONCLUSIONS: High Body Mass Index is associated with thyroid cancer. Comprehensive control of body weight may help mitigate or even prevent the development of thyroid cancer, providing valuable data for future prevention and control efforts.
背景：甲状腺癌是最常见的内分泌肿瘤，影响患者生活质量并造成重大社会负担。本研究旨在估计过去30年中因高体重指数（HBMI）导致的全球甲状腺癌负担。 方法：提取因HBMI导致的甲状腺癌死亡率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）和年龄标准化率（ASRs）。使用具有高斯分布的广义线性模型计算ASRs的估计年变化百分比（EAPCs），量化因HBMI导致的全球甲状腺癌负担的时间趋势。使用Spearman等级相关性测量社会发展指数（SDI）与DALY率之间关联的强度和方向。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测2020年至2035年甲状腺癌的死亡模式。 结果：全球范围内，甲状腺癌的DALYs从1990年的1.49增加到2021年的1.68，EAPC为0.377（95%CI：0.342-0.411）。127个国家或地区呈上升趋势。这种趋势在低SDI、中等SDI和低-中等SDI地区尤为明显，而在高SDI和高-中等SDI地区则观察到下降趋势。全球女性的年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）和DALYs均高于男性。从2020年到2035年，以DALYs和ASDR衡量的全球甲状腺癌负担预计都将呈逐渐上升趋势。 结论：高体重指数与甲状腺癌有关。全面控制体重可能有助于减轻甚至预防甲状腺癌的发生，为未来的防控工作提供有价值的数据。
J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. 2025-8-6
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