Wang YaRong, Wang Liang, Yu Bei, Wen Shuang, Mou Xiaoxi, Yang Lin
Department of Urology, Bishan Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 402760, People's Republic of China.
Department of Urology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400010, People's Republic of China.
BMC Cancer. 2025 Aug 20;25(1):1344. doi: 10.1186/s12885-025-14681-0.
Breast cancer, the most common cancer in women, also affects men. However, detailed assessments of the disease burden and future projections for male breast cancer (MBC) remain limited.
Data on global male breast cancer mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed. We used the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) to assess MBC trends and analyzed regional and age impacts on disease burden. The Slope Inequality Index (SII), Concentration Index (C-I), and Frontier analysis delineated inequalities and future trends. The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model clarified population dynamics. We also identified risk factors and applied the ARIMA model to forecast disease burden changes over the next 30 years.
Between 1990 and 2021, MBC deaths and DALYs showed a global increase. The EAPC for deaths was 0.66 (0.56-0.76), with the middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region experiencing the most significant rise at 2.0 (1.76-2.24). DALYs had an EAPC of 0.85 (0.75-0.95), and the Middle SDI region saw the most notable increase with an EAPC of 2.16 (1.89-2.42). The global prevalence and incidence also increased, with EAPCs of 2.3 (2.13-2.46) and 2.21 (2.05-2.37) respectively. Disease burden was high and decreasing in low SDI regions, but low and stable in high SDI regions. The Age-standardized rate(ASR)-Deaths correlated negatively with SDI. ASR-Prevalence showed a negative correlation with SDI when SDI was below 0.5, a positive correlation when SDI was between 0.5 and 0.8, and a negative correlation again when SDI exceeded 0.8. Disease burden increased with age initially, peaking in the 65-69 age group for deaths, prevalence, and incidence, then decreasing. DALYs peaked in the 60-64 age group. High red meat consumption was associated with increased mortality risk. Projections suggest that while the total MBC burden will rise over the next 30 years, ASR-Deaths and DALYs will decline globally, and prevalence and incidence will increase.
Global male breast cancer deaths and DALYs are rising. Low SDI regions bear a higher disease burden, which is decreasing over time, while high SDI regions maintain a lower, stable burden. Over the next 30 years, the total disease burden is projected to increase further. Given these trends, male breast cancer remains a significant global health concern, and emerging disease patterns must inform new control policies.
乳腺癌是女性最常见的癌症，男性也会患乳腺癌。然而，关于男性乳腺癌（MBC）疾病负担的详细评估以及未来预测仍然有限。
分析了1990年至2021年全球男性乳腺癌死亡率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）、患病率和发病率的数据。我们使用估计年百分比变化（EAPC）来评估MBC趋势，并分析区域和年龄对疾病负担的影响。斜率不平等指数（SII）、集中指数（C-I）和前沿分析描绘了不平等和未来趋势。年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型阐明了人口动态。我们还确定了风险因素，并应用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测未来30年疾病负担的变化。
1990年至2021年期间，全球MBC死亡人数和DALYs呈上升趋势。死亡人数的EAPC为0.66（0.56 - 0.76），社会人口指数（SDI）中等的地区上升最为显著，为2.0（1.76 - 2.24）。DALYs的EAPC为0.85（0.75 - 0.95），SDI中等地区的增长最为显著，EAPC为2.16（1.89 - 2.42）。全球患病率和发病率也有所上升，EAPC分别为2.3（2.13 - 2.46）和2.21（2.05 - 2.37）。低SDI地区的疾病负担较高且呈下降趋势，而高SDI地区的疾病负担较低且稳定。年龄标准化死亡率（ASR）-死亡人数与SDI呈负相关。当SDI低于0.5时，ASR-患病率与SDI呈负相关；当SDI在0.5至0.8之间时，呈正相关；当SDI超过0.8时，再次呈负相关。疾病负担最初随年龄增加，在65 - 69岁年龄组的死亡人数、患病率和发病率达到峰值，然后下降。DALYs在60 - 64岁年龄组达到峰值。高红肉消费与死亡风险增加有关。预测表明，虽然未来30年MBC总负担将上升，但全球ASR-死亡人数和DALYs将下降，患病率和发病率将上升。
全球男性乳腺癌死亡人数和DALYs正在上升。低SDI地区承担着更高的疾病负担，且随着时间推移负担在下降，而高SDI地区的负担较低且稳定。预计未来30年总疾病负担将进一步增加。鉴于这些趋势，男性乳腺癌仍然是一个重大的全球健康问题，新出现的疾病模式必须为新的控制政策提供依据。
