Abedin Imon, Kang Hey-Eun, Saikia Hemanta, Jung Won-Kyo, Kim Hyun-Woo, Kundu Shantanu
Dibru-Saikhowa Conservation Society, Tinsukia, India.
Institute of Marine Life Science, Pukyong National University, Busan, Republic of Korea.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2025 Sep 2;19(9):e0013464. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0013464. eCollection 2025 Sep.
Climate change is anticipated to significantly impact the biogeographic distribution of snakes, leading to notable shifts in their habitats toward anthropogenic landscapes. This may potentially increase the incidence of Big Four species (Bungarus caeruleus, Daboia russelii, Echis carinatus, and Naja naja) envenomation, a notable human-health risk that has not yet been assessed in India being the most affected country in South Asia. Therefore, this study integrates species distributions with socioeconomic and healthcare data to prioritize areas for targeted interventions to mitigate the envenomation risks effectively in India.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The present study employed ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to analyze the geographical distribution of the Big Four species under current climatic conditions and projected these models to estimate potential species distributions up to 2080. Furthermore, by incorporating various future climatic scenarios, the study assessed the potential loss and gain of suitable habitats along with their overlap with cropland and built-up areas. Further, integrating SDMs with socioeconomic scenarios and present health infrastructure, the study developed a risk index to estimate the current and upcoming vulnerable districts and states in next five decades. The results indicate significant losses in potentially suitable habitats for the Big Four species under future climatic scenarios. However, the risk index identified several southern Indian states and districts, such as Karnataka (Chikkaballapura, Haveri, and Chitradurga etc.) and Gujarat (Devbhumi Dwarka and Jamnagar etc.), as having high vulnerability to snakebite. Additionally, under climate change scenarios, many northern and northeastern states and districts, including Assam (Nagaon, Morigaon, and Golaghat etc.), Manipur (Tengnoupal), and Rajasthan (Pratapgarh), have experienced an increased risk of snakebite, presenting a significant public health concern in these regions.
CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The integrated risk index indicates that the southwestern region urgently needs priority attention to combat fatalities from envenomation by the Big Four species, while also highlighting the future needs of the northern and northeastern region to aid public health efforts. To mitigate these impacts, local governments and international communities must intensify efforts to counter climate change and protect vulnerable regions from Big Four envenomation.
气候变化预计将对蛇类的生物地理分布产生重大影响，导致其栖息地显著向人为景观转移。这可能会增加四大蛇类物种（印度眼镜蛇、罗素蝰蛇、锯鳞蝰蛇和印度金环蛇）致人中毒的发生率，在南亚受影响最严重的国家印度，这是一个尚未得到评估的重大人类健康风险。因此，本研究将物种分布与社会经济和医疗数据相结合，以确定优先区域，进行有针对性的干预，从而在印度有效降低中毒风险。
方法/主要发现：本研究采用集合物种分布模型（SDM）来分析四大蛇类物种在当前气候条件下的地理分布，并对这些模型进行预测，以估计到2080年的潜在物种分布。此外，通过纳入各种未来气候情景，该研究评估了适宜栖息地的潜在损失和增加情况，以及它们与农田和建成区的重叠情况。此外，该研究将SDM与社会经济情景和当前的卫生基础设施相结合，制定了一个风险指数，以估计未来五十年当前和即将出现的脆弱地区和邦。结果表明，在未来气候情景下，四大蛇类物种的潜在适宜栖息地将大幅减少。然而，风险指数确定了印度南部的几个邦和地区具有较高的蛇咬风险，如卡纳塔克邦（奇卡巴拉普拉、哈维里和奇特拉杜尔加等）和古吉拉特邦（德夫布米杜瓦卡和贾姆讷格尔等）。此外，在气候变化情景下，包括阿萨姆邦（那加翁、莫里冈和戈拉哈特等）、曼尼普尔邦（滕努帕尔）和拉贾斯坦邦（普拉塔普加尔）在内的许多北部和东北部邦和地区，蛇咬风险有所增加，这在这些地区构成了重大的公共卫生问题。
结论/意义：综合风险指数表明，西南地区迫切需要优先关注，以应对四大蛇类物种中毒导致的死亡，同时也凸显了北部和东北部地区未来在公共卫生方面的需求。为减轻这些影响，地方政府和国际社会必须加大应对气候变化的力度，并保护脆弱地区免受四大蛇类物种中毒的影响。
