Berry D A
Stat Med. 1985 Oct-Dec;4(4):521-6. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780040412.
This paper concerns interim analysis in clinical trials involving two treatments from the points of view of both classical and Bayesian inference. I criticize classical hypothesis testing in this setting and describe and recommend a Bayesian approach in which sampling stops when the probability that one treatment is the better exceeds a specified value. I consider application to normal sampling analysed in stages and evaluate the gain in average sample number as a function of the number of interim analyses.
本文从经典推断和贝叶斯推断的角度探讨了涉及两种治疗方法的临床试验中的期中分析。我批评了这种情况下的经典假设检验，并描述和推荐了一种贝叶斯方法，即在一种治疗方法更好的概率超过指定值时停止抽样。我考虑了在分阶段分析的正态抽样中的应用，并评估了作为期中分析次数函数的平均样本数的增益。
