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Global trends and health workforce analysis of breast cancer burden from high red meat consumption 1990-2050 using machine learning approach.

作者信息

Cai Yuzhou, Qian Jingxian

机构信息

Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan, China.

Department of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan, China.

出版信息

Front Nutr. 2025 Aug 14;12:1576043. doi: 10.3389/fnut.2025.1576043. eCollection 2025.


DOI:10.3389/fnut.2025.1576043
PMID:40896189
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12390816/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: High red meat consumption has been implicated in breast cancer development, yet comprehensive global burden assessments and health system relationships remain limited. METHODS: We analyzed breast cancer mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using Global Burden of Disease 2021 data across 204 countries. Age-period-cohort analysis, decomposition analysis, health inequality assessment, frontier analysis, and correlation analysis with healthcare workforce density were employed. Machine learning models (ARIMA, Prophet) provided projections to 2050. RESULTS: Despite declining global age-standardized mortality rates (APC: -0.772%), absolute breast cancer deaths increased from 45,074 (1990) to 81,506 (2021), with DALYs rising from 1.4 to 2.5 million. Profound regional disparities emerged: high-income regions showed declining trends (Western Europe APC: -1.736%) while developing regions experienced increasing burdens (North Africa/Middle East APC: +2.026%). Decomposition analysis revealed population growth (100.266%) and aging (34.86%) as primary drivers, partially offset by epidemiological improvements (-35.127%). Turkey exhibited the largest mortality increase (APC: +3.924%) vs. Denmark's greatest decline (APC: -2.379%). Healthcare workforce analysis demonstrated strong initial correlations between nursing/midwifery density and disease burden ( = 0.68, 1990) that weakened substantially over time ( = 0.24, 2019), suggesting evolving detection-prevention dynamics. Health inequality analysis showed declining relative disparities (Concentration Index: 0.461-0.297) despite increasing absolute gaps. Machine learning projections forecast continued burden increases, with female deaths reaching 99,749 by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: The global breast cancer burden associated with red meat consumption presents a complex paradox of declining age-standardized rates alongside rising absolute burden, with pronounced inequalities between developed and developing nations. The evolving relationship between healthcare workforce and disease burden highlights shifting dynamics from detection-driven increases to prevention-focused reductions. Strategic policy interventions should prioritize nursing and physical therapy workforce investment in developing regions, implement age-specific prevention strategies for younger populations (25-34 years), and establish context-specific dietary guidelines that consider socioeconomic factors to effectively reduce global breast cancer burden.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/b8ce64c0f966/fnut-12-1576043-g0008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/69dc60a165f5/fnut-12-1576043-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/e0baea56c569/fnut-12-1576043-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/80d12689b868/fnut-12-1576043-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/5c830a9e8228/fnut-12-1576043-g0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/21b4e9f40006/fnut-12-1576043-g0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/0db79580c14d/fnut-12-1576043-g0006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/c28d2d32ffde/fnut-12-1576043-g0007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/b8ce64c0f966/fnut-12-1576043-g0008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/69dc60a165f5/fnut-12-1576043-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/e0baea56c569/fnut-12-1576043-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/80d12689b868/fnut-12-1576043-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/5c830a9e8228/fnut-12-1576043-g0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/21b4e9f40006/fnut-12-1576043-g0005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/0db79580c14d/fnut-12-1576043-g0006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/c28d2d32ffde/fnut-12-1576043-g0007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dca1/12390816/b8ce64c0f966/fnut-12-1576043-g0008.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Global trends and health workforce analysis of breast cancer burden from high red meat consumption 1990-2050 using machine learning approach.

Front Nutr. 2025-8-14

[2]
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[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
Global burden of disease changes related to high red meat diets and breast cancer from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction up to 2030.

Front Nutr. 2025-6-4

[2]
Global, regional, and national analyses of the burden among adult women of breast cancer attributable to diet high in red meat from 1990 to 2021: longitudinal observational study.

Front Public Health. 2025-5-13

[3]
Current and future immunotherapy for breast cancer.

J Hematol Oncol. 2024-12-25

[4]
What is the best time of the month to treat breast cancer?

Nature. 2025-1

[5]
Estrogens and breast cancer.

Ann Oncol. 2025-2

[6]
Global, reginal, national burden and risk factors in female breast cancer from 1990 to 2021.

iScience. 2024-9-25

[7]
Assessing the impact of the National Clean Air Programme in Uttar Pradesh's non-attainment cities: a prophet model time series analysis.

Lancet Reg Health Southeast Asia. 2024-10-7

[8]
Hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer in young women: A comprehensive review.

Cancer Treat Rev. 2024-9

[9]
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Lancet. 2024-5-18

[10]
Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Lancet. 2024-5-18

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