1990年至2021年与高红肉饮食和乳腺癌相关的全球疾病负担变化及其至2030年的预测。

Global burden of disease changes related to high red meat diets and breast cancer from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction up to 2030.

作者信息

Tong Yujun, Ning Hong, Zhang Zhen, Zhang Xiaohong, Tu HongMei, Yang Min, Li Xiaoan, Liang Tiantian

机构信息

Department of Breast Center, Mianyang Central Hospital, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Mianyang, China.

Department of Pharmacy, Mianyang Central Hospital, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Mianyang, China.

出版信息

Front Nutr. 2025 Jun 4;12:1586299. doi: 10.3389/fnut.2025.1586299. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.3389/fnut.2025.1586299

PMID:40535052

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12173928/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer associated with high red meat consumption has become a significant global health issue. This study aims to analyze the global and regional disease burden related to breast cancer attributable to high red meat diets from 1990 to 2021, and to predict future trends in disease burden through 2030, providing scientific evidence for the development of targeted public health strategies.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, focusing on breast cancer-related attribution indicators, including the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs). The study analyzed the changes in breast cancer disease burden associated with high red meat consumption from 1990 to 2021 at the global level, across 21 regions, and in 204 countries. Future trends were projected using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model.

RESULTS

In 2021, breast cancer deaths attributable to excessive red meat diets totaled 81,506, with YLLs amounting to 2,135,620 person-years and YLDs accounting for 214,442 person-years. These values represent increases of 80.83, 72.69, and 65.37%, respectively, compared to 1990. Despite global decreases in the ASRs of mortality and YLLs (which decreased to 1.15/100,000 and 30.12/100,000, with EAPCs of -0.77 and -0.73, respectively), the ASR of YLDs remained relatively stable (EAPC of -0.12). Stratification by Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) revealed a significant decline in disease burden in high-SDI regions, while the ASR in low-SDI regions trended upward. Projections suggested that by 2030, the global ASR of breast cancer burden may stabilize, while the burden in low-SDI regions is expected to continue rising.

CONCLUSION

From 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized rate of the breast cancer disease burden decreased, but disparities between regions with different SDI levels remain a major challenge. In the future, it is essential to prioritize addressing the burden in low-SDI regions and developing targeted interventions to optimize health resources, thereby mitigating the public health threat of breast cancer.

摘要

背景

与高红肉摄入量相关的乳腺癌已成为一个重大的全球健康问题。本研究旨在分析1990年至2021年期间，高红肉饮食导致的全球及区域乳腺癌疾病负担，并预测到2030年疾病负担的未来趋势，为制定针对性的公共卫生策略提供科学依据。

方法

数据从全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库中提取，重点关注与乳腺癌相关的归因指标，包括年龄标准化死亡率（ASRs）、寿命损失年数（YLLs）、伤残调整生命年（YLDs）。该研究分析了1990年至2021年期间全球、21个地区以及204个国家与高红肉消费相关的乳腺癌疾病负担变化。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测未来趋势。

结果

2021年，因过量红肉饮食导致的乳腺癌死亡总数为81,506例，寿命损失年数达2,135,620人年，伤残调整生命年为214,442人年。与1990年相比，这些数值分别增长了80.83%、72.69%和65.37%。尽管全球死亡率和寿命损失年数的年龄标准化率有所下降（分别降至1.15/10万和30.12/10万，年均百分比变化率分别为-0.77和-0.73），伤残调整生命年的年龄标准化率保持相对稳定（年均百分比变化率为-0.12）。按社会人口指数（SDI）分层显示，高SDI地区的疾病负担显著下降，而低SDI地区的年龄标准化率呈上升趋势。预测表明，到2030年，全球乳腺癌负担的年龄标准化率可能趋于稳定，而低SDI地区的负担预计将继续上升。