Outbreak dates of virus could be predicted by their protein sequence.

INTRODUCTION

Since 1970, monkey-pox, the last outbreak of smallpox, coronavirus was outbreak in the world for more than 50 years. To find if the outbreak dates could be predicted by their one-dimension protein sequence, the mathematical model was needed to establish between them.

METHODS

(A) collecting the outbreak dates of monkey-pox, smallpox, and coronavirus, determine the outbreak time interval between the pathogen strain and the reference strain SARS-CoV-2 D614, z. (B) detecting the one-dimension antigenic amino acid sequence of the pathogen strain to determine the super-antigens. (C) calculating the super-antigen precision, determining the increase amount in antigen precision between the pathogen strain and the reference strain, x; y represents the number of tryptophan (W) in the super-antigen. (D) Determine the correlation among the outbreak time interval z, the increase amount in antigen precision, x, and the number of W the super-antigen contains, y.

RESULTS

The regression equation is z = 13.762x- 109.376x- 63.290y + 221.197, with a correlation coefficient of R = 1.0000000. After statistical testing, the probability of class I errors occurring is P = 0.008.

CONCLUSIONS

The method can predict the outbreak dates by one-dimension protein sequence, such as monkey-pox, smallpox, and coronavirus.