Burden and Predictions of Untreated Caries in China, 1990-2039: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to analyze the burden of untreated caries in deciduous and permanent teeth in China from 1990 to 2019 and projects its future trends through 2039.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data on the burden of caries in primary and permanent teeth in China between 1990 and 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study to assess the current burden of untreated caries. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was estimated using a joinpoint regression model to evaluate temporal trends in the burden of untreated caries. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the burden of untreated caries between 2019 and 2039.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of untreated caries in deciduous teeth in China increased by 6.8%, with an AAPC of 0.22 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.15-0.22, p < 0.05). The ASIR of caries in permanent teeth decreased by 1.3%, with an AAPC of -0.05 (95% CI: -0.04 to -0.05, p < 0.05). The highest incidence of caries in primary teeth was observed in the 0-4 age group, whereas the highest ASIR of caries in permanent teeth was observed in the 20-24 age group. No significant sex differences were found in the incidence rates of caries in either dentition. Projections from 2020 to 2039 indicate an upward trend in the ASIR of caries in both deciduous and permanent teeth.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the past 30 years, the burden of dental caries in China has increased significantly. Projections indicate that the ASIR of dental caries will continue to increase. Therefore, appropriate prevention and control strategies are required to reduce the burden of caries in the Chinese population.