Zhang Xiaolei, Zhao Chan-Na, Zheng Hu, Zhao Chunhui, Wang Yuanyin, Pan Hai-Feng, Li Wuli
College & Hospital of Stomatology, Anhui Medical University, Key Lab. of Oral Diseases Research of Anhui Province, Hefei, Anhui, China.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China.
Clin Exp Dent Res. 2025 Oct;11(5):e70211. doi: 10.1002/cre2.70211.
This study aims to analyze the burden of untreated caries in deciduous and permanent teeth in China from 1990 to 2019 and projects its future trends through 2039.
Data on the burden of caries in primary and permanent teeth in China between 1990 and 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study to assess the current burden of untreated caries. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was estimated using a joinpoint regression model to evaluate temporal trends in the burden of untreated caries. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the burden of untreated caries between 2019 and 2039.
From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of untreated caries in deciduous teeth in China increased by 6.8%, with an AAPC of 0.22 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.15-0.22, p < 0.05). The ASIR of caries in permanent teeth decreased by 1.3%, with an AAPC of -0.05 (95% CI: -0.04 to -0.05, p < 0.05). The highest incidence of caries in primary teeth was observed in the 0-4 age group, whereas the highest ASIR of caries in permanent teeth was observed in the 20-24 age group. No significant sex differences were found in the incidence rates of caries in either dentition. Projections from 2020 to 2039 indicate an upward trend in the ASIR of caries in both deciduous and permanent teeth.
Over the past 30 years, the burden of dental caries in China has increased significantly. Projections indicate that the ASIR of dental caries will continue to increase. Therefore, appropriate prevention and control strategies are required to reduce the burden of caries in the Chinese population.
本研究旨在分析1990年至2019年中国乳牙和恒牙未治疗龋齿的负担，并预测其到2039年的未来趋势。
从《2019年全球疾病负担研究》中提取1990年至2019年中国乳牙和恒牙龋齿负担的数据，以评估当前未治疗龋齿的负担。使用Joinpoint回归模型估计平均年度百分比变化（AAPC），以评估未治疗龋齿负担的时间趋势。应用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2019年至2039年未治疗龋齿的负担。
1990年至2019年，中国乳牙未治疗龋齿的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）上升了6.8%，AAPC为0.22（95%置信区间[95%CI]：0.15-0.22，p<0.05）。恒牙龋齿的ASIR下降了1.3%，AAPC为-0.05（95%CI：-0.04至-0.05，p<0.05）。乳牙龋齿发病率最高的是0-4岁年龄组，而恒牙龋齿ASIR最高的是20-24岁年龄组。在任何一种牙列中，龋齿发病率均未发现明显的性别差异。2020年至2039年的预测表明，乳牙和恒牙龋齿的ASIR呈上升趋势。
在过去30年中，中国龋齿负担显著增加。预测表明，龋齿的ASIR将继续上升。因此，需要采取适当的预防和控制策略来减轻中国人群的龋齿负担。
