Liu Dejing, Li Faxing, Yang Zhen, Xu Guilong, Zheng Xin, Yue Song, Gao Yingjun
Yunnan Nanjing Highway Co., Ltd., Puer, Yunnan, China.
Pu'er Transportation Construction Group Co., Ltd., Puer, Yunnan, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Sep 15;20(9):e0330224. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0330224. eCollection 2025.
Traffic simulation has gained significant attention due to its ability to quickly evaluate traffic efficiency and safety in the merging areas of interchanges. However, most of the existing studies mainly investigate how to achieve great traffic efficiency, few studies focus on simulation precision and collision risk under traffic uncertainty in merging areas of interchanges. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to assess potential collision risk in the merging area of interchanges considering uncertainty of traffic flow. A random traffic simulation is established by Monte Carlo method to simulate the high-field traffic flow in the merging area of interchanges. Then the safe braking deceleration (SBD) as a safety measure index is proposed to identify the vehicle's collision risk in merging. Several risk variables including relative distance, relative speed and merging angular velocity (MAV) between vehicles on the ramp and main line are extracted from the simulation scenario. The results show that the relative speed and distance between the vehicle on the ramp and the one in front on the mainline have little impact on SBD, while MAV significantly indicates collision risk in the merging area of the interchange. Additionally, SBD increases as MAV rises. This study introduces a new traffic simulation platform that accounts for parameter uncertainty to simulate high-fidelity traffic situations, enabling the design of more reliable ramp merging control strategies. Moreover, MAV, which effectively represents SBD, can significantly identify collision risks in the merging area of interchanges.
交通仿真因其能够快速评估互通式立交合流区域的交通效率和安全性而受到广泛关注。然而，现有的大多数研究主要探讨如何实现较高的交通效率，很少有研究关注互通式立交合流区域交通不确定性下的仿真精度和碰撞风险。因此，本文的目的是考虑交通流的不确定性，评估互通式立交合流区域的潜在碰撞风险。通过蒙特卡洛方法建立随机交通仿真，以模拟互通式立交合流区域的高场交通流。然后提出安全制动减速度（SBD）作为安全度量指标，以识别车辆在合流时的碰撞风险。从仿真场景中提取了几个风险变量，包括匝道上车辆与主线车辆之间的相对距离、相对速度和合流角速度（MAV）。结果表明，匝道上车辆与主线前车之间的相对速度和距离对SBD影响较小，而MAV显著表明了互通式立交合流区域的碰撞风险。此外，SBD随着MAV的增加而增大。本研究引入了一个新的交通仿真平台，该平台考虑参数不确定性来模拟高保真交通情况，从而能够设计出更可靠的匝道合流控制策略。此外，有效代表SBD的MAV能够显著识别互通式立交合流区域的碰撞风险。
