Niu Zhen, Han Dong, Niu Zijie, Roussos Petros A, Cheng Tao, Xie Jiyuan, Cao Geni, Liu Dandan, Jin Ning, Zhang Dongyan
College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China.
Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Perception and Intelligent Service, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2025 Sep 1;16:1617802. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1617802. eCollection 2025.
Climate change and anthropogenic activities have significantly altered the distribution patterns of kiwifruit resources in Shaanxi Province. Clarifying the characteristics of future climate suitability zones can provide scientific support for optimizing industrial planning and mitigating meteorological disaster risks.
This study applied the MaxEnt model with ENMeval package parameter optimization. Environmental factor contributions were quantified via jackknife tests, and spatial consistency between major producing counties and ecological suitability areas was analyzed using ArcGIS. The dynamic shifts and centroid migration patterns of kiwifruit habitats under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) during the 2050-2070 were simulated.
Currently, high-suitability zones (13,100 km², 6.38% of the province) are concentrated in the northern Qinling Mountains, Weihe River terrace irrigation areas, and the Danjiang/Hanjiang River basins of southern Shaanxi, while moderate-suitability zones cover 32,600 km² (15.86%). Critical environmental drivers include the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, elevation, annual temperature variation range, and soil moisture content. Future projections reveal substantial reductions in high-suitability habitats (SSP126: 79.12% decrease to 2,700 km² by 2080; SSP245/370/585 reductions of 58.01%/68.33%/61.70%), intensified habitat fragmentation, and slight northwestward centroid shift. This study systematically evaluates climate change impacts on kiwifruit suitability zones, offering a theoretical basis for intensive adjustments in Shaanxi's cultivation zones, agricultural policy formulation, and biodiversity conservation strategies.
气候变化和人类活动显著改变了陕西省猕猴桃资源的分布格局。明确未来气候适宜区的特征可为优化产业规划和降低气象灾害风险提供科学依据。
本研究应用采用ENMeval包进行参数优化的MaxEnt模型。通过刀切法检验量化环境因子的贡献，并利用ArcGIS分析主要产区与生态适宜区之间的空间一致性。模拟了2050 - 2070年四种共享社会经济路径（SSP）气候情景（SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585）下猕猴桃栖息地的动态变化和质心迁移模式。
目前，高适生区（13100平方千米，占全省面积的6.38%）集中在秦岭北麓、渭河阶地灌区以及陕南的丹江/汉江流域，而中适生区面积为32600平方千米（15.86%）。关键环境驱动因素包括最冷月平均温度、海拔、年温度变化范围和土壤湿度。未来预测显示，高适生生境将大幅减少（SSP126情景下，到2080年减少79.12%，降至2700平方千米；SSP245/370/585情景下分别减少58.01%/68.33%/61.70%），生境破碎化加剧，质心略有向西北方向移动。本研究系统评估了气候变化对猕猴桃适宜区的影响，为陕西种植区的集约化调整、农业政策制定和生物多样性保护策略提供了理论依据。
