Cheng Ming-Yue, Ji Guang-Xing, Huang Jun-Chang, Geng Jian-Xi, Li Ling, Lu Jie
College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Sep 8;46(9):5729-5740. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202409068.
The rapid development of global society and economy has brought heavy pressure on the natural environment， and the burning of fossil fuels releases a large amount of CO， which seriously harms the production and life of human beings. Based on the strategic background of the dual-carbon target， this study selected Shaanxi Province， which accounts for a large area of cropland， woodland， and grassland， as its study area and used the gas emission scenario of SSPs in the IPCC report to study the future period of the province's land-use type changes and the characteristics of its carbon stock changes to provide theoretical suggestions for the changes of ecosystem carbon stocks in Shaanxi Province in the future period. The results of the study follow： ① Under the SSP126 scenario， the change in land use types in Shaanxi Province in 2030-2050 is an increase in the area of woodland and a decrease in the area of cropland and grassland. Under the SSP245 scenario， the change in 2030-2050 is an increase in the area of cropland and building land and a decrease in the area of woodland and grassland. Under the SSP585 scenario， the change in land use types in 2030-2050 consists of an increase in the area of cropland and building land and a decrease in the area of woodland， grassland， and others. ② The simulation study of Shaanxi Province's carbon stock in 2030-2050 found that among the three SSP scenarios Shaanxi Province is most suitable for the development path of SSP126， i.e.， sustainable socioeconomic development and lower gas emissions. ③ Carbon stocks are mainly concentrated in land use types with high carbon density values， such as woodlands and grasslands. An examination of the spatial distribution of land use in Shaanxi Province revealed that areas with high carbon stock values are distributed in the Qinling Mountains in southern Shaanxi， the southern mountainous areas， and in southern Shaanxi. Areas with medium carbon stocks are distributed in the Loess Plateau in central northern Shaanxi， most of the Guanzhong Plain in the Guanzhong Region， and in Hanzhong in southern Shaanxi. Areas with low carbon stocks are mainly distributed in the areas bordering the Mu Us Desert in northern Shaanxi， concentrated or sporadically distributed along the Weihe River Basin in the Guanzhong Region， and sporadically distributed along the Hanjiang River Basin in southern Shaanxi. The area of future low-carbon reserves in Shaanxi Province is larger under the SSP585 scenario than under the other two scenarios.
全球社会经济的快速发展给自然环境带来了巨大压力，化石燃料的燃烧释放出大量的一氧化碳，严重危害人类的生产生活。基于双碳目标的战略背景，本研究选取耕地、林地和草地面积占比较大的陕西省作为研究区域，利用IPCC报告中SSPs的气体排放情景，研究该省未来时期土地利用类型变化及碳储量变化特征，为陕西省未来时期生态系统碳储量变化提供理论建议。研究结果如下：①在SSP126情景下，2030—2050年陕西省土地利用类型变化为林地面积增加，耕地和草地面积减少。在SSP245情景下，2030—2050年的变化是耕地和建设用地面积增加，林地和草地面积减少。在SSP585情景下，2030—2050年土地利用类型变化为耕地和建设用地面积增加，林地、草地及其他面积减少。②对陕西省2030—2050年碳储量的模拟研究发现，在三种SSP情景中，陕西省最适合SSP126的发展路径，即社会经济可持续发展且气体排放较低。③碳储量主要集中在碳密度值较高的土地利用类型，如林地和草地。对陕西省土地利用空间分布的考察表明，高碳储量值区域分布在陕南的秦岭山脉、南部山区以及陕南地区。中等碳储量区域分布在陕北中部的黄土高原、关中地区的大部分关中平原以及陕南的汉中。低碳储量区域主要分布在陕北与毛乌素沙漠接壤的地区，沿关中地区的渭河平原集中或零星分布，沿陕南的汉江流域零星分布。陕西省未来低碳储量面积在SSP585情景下比其他两种情景下更大。
